Presently, Virginia is locked in the beginning of what may end up being a very lengthy battle between the conflicting Congressional redistricting plans of the Virginia State Senate (under Democratic control) and the Virginia House of Delegates (under GOP control). Just a couple days ago, each side passed its own version of the new map. The VA Senate plan proposes the creation of a second majority-minority district in VA-04 with a black majority, a plan that turns Bobby Scott's current majority-minority district (VA-03) into one with a black plurality. The map sets up three solid Democratic seats and one likely Dem seat in northern Virginia. Meanwhile, the GOP-dominated House of Delegates' plan attempts to shore up the eight Republican incumbents as best as it can.
After examining the Democratic plan, I wanted to see what two fully black-majority districts would look like on the map. In the process of drawing this map, I also decided to construct a majority-minority district in northern Virginia. The result was a map that is not exactly pretty but is interesting nonetheless. Remember this is all hypothetical and considering the violations of communities of interest and compactness, I doubt such a map would be given any serious consideration. Still it's a fun exercise. Please read on:
I intend to mainly focus on the majority-minority districts but will go ahead and mention all of the districts under this plan.
VA-01 (blue)
This district stretches from the Hampton Roads area all the way to Stafford County, which is similar to the present VA-01. There is an awkward little section that uses water contiguity across the James River to duck into Surry and Prince George Counties to take in some more white vote.
Info:
2008 Pres: McCain 56.8%, Obama 43.2%
Dem-GOP 2000-2009: GOP 58.9%, Dem 41.1%
Demographics: White 72.9%, Black 16.2%, Hispanic 5.7%, Asian 2.3%
VA-02 (green)
VA-02, which the Democrats managed to take in 2008, returned to GOP hands in 2010. In this plan, it essentially teams with VA-01 to surround VA-03, taking in more white areas in an effort to give VA-03 a black majority (see picture with VA-03).
2008 Pres: McCain 55.9%, Obama 44.1%
Dem-GOP 2000-2009: GOP 56.9%, Dem 43.1%
Demographics: White 69.5%, Black 17.5%, Hispanic 5.6%, Asian 4.2%
VA-03 (purple)
Our first majority-minority district to discuss is built off of part of Virginia's current majority-minority district. Bobby Scott lives in this district as he does the current VA-03 but the district no longer encompasses the Richmond area. Instead, the district essentially takes in all of the main black population areas in the Tidewater, snaking into Virginia Beach and Chesapeake from its main base in Norfolk and Portsmouth. Using water contiguity, the district also takes in Hampton as well as northern Newport News. Lastly, it stretches west into Sussex County as well beyond Franklin, VA.
2008 Pres: Obama 70.8%, McCain 29.2%
Dem-GOP 2000-2009: Dem 65.5%, GOP 34.5%
Demographics: Black 51.2%, White 37.2%, Hispanic 5.4%, Asian 2.9%, Total Minority 59.5%
VA-04 (red)
Just as the VA State Senate plan turns this into majority-minority district with a black majority, this VA-04 accomplishes the same goal, albeit in a more convoluted manner. However, to reach a little over 51%, which I felt was a better goal than simply 50%, I had to get a little creative. While the district is based in Richmond, Petersburg, and Hopewell for most of its minority population, the district had to end up looking like three stalagmites rising from the bottom of a cave in order to take in a sufficient amount of African-Americans. In fact, the district stretches all the way out to the heavily-black precincts of Danville and Lynchburg.
Just for the sake of mentioning it, Randy Forbes, the current VA-04 representative, does not live in this district as its drawn but rather VA-02 (he lives in Chesapeake), which would hypothetically set up a GOP incumbent primary battle in VA-02 between Forbes and Scott Rigell.
2008 Pres: Obama 68.6%, McCain 31.4%
Dem-GOP 2000-2009: Dem 62.9%, GOP 37.1%
Demographics: Black 51.2%, White 39.4%, Hispanic 5.5%, Asian 1.5%, Total Minority 58.2%
VA-05 (yellow)
Whereas VA-04 looks like three stalagmites, VA-05 may have the appearance of three stalagtites. Not much else to say.
2008 Pres: McCain 57.1%, Obama 42.9%
Dem-GOP 2000-2009: GOP 56.9%, Dem 43.1%
Demographics: White 78.0%, Black 15.4%, Hispanic 3.1%, Asian 1.7%
VA-06 (teal)
My home district still takes in part of Roanoke County but loses Roanoke city to VA-09; Bob Goodlatte lives in the county, so I doubt he would care. The district now makes its way north all the way to the outskirts of northern Virginia, taking in the still semi-rural part of Loudon County, which has been one of the fastest growing counties in the country, but whose growth is situation primarily in the eastern part of the county (naturally, since that's closer to D.C.).
2008 Pres: McCain 60.0%, Obama 40.0%
Dem-GOP 2000-2009: GOP 61.3%, Dem 38.7%
Demographics: White 87.1%, Black 4.7%, Hispanic 5.1%, Asian 1.3%
VA-07 (gray)
Eric Cantor's district makes a little southern hook below Richmond but otherwise shoots north all the way to Fauquier County just shy of what is considered "northern Virginia." For kicks, here's a short of metro Richmond:
2008 Pres: McCain 57.2%, Obama 42.8%
Dem-GOP 2000-2009: GOP 59.9%, Dem 40.1%
Demographics: White 76.4%, Black 12.5%, Hispanic 4.6%, Asian 4.1%
VA-08 (chartreuse)
This district is presently the bluest district in Virginia besides VA-03 but under this configuration it is a bit less blue because it ends up almost encircling the new majority-minority district VA-11. Jim Moran would not be happy with this district since it ends up splitting Arlington and Alexandria. Here's Northern Virginia:
2008 Pres: Obama 60.6%, McCain 39.4%
Dem-GOP 2000-2009: Dem 58.9%, GOP 41.1%
Demographics: White 66.6%, Black 6.8% Hispanic 10.8%, Asian 12.7%
VA-09 (brown)
The most rural district in Virginia gets a little urban flavor by taking in Roanoke, the largest city in the western part of Virginia, for population reasons. Nevertheless, the political winds in this district are moving decidedly to the right.
2008 Pres: McCain 57.6%, Obama 42.4%
Dem-GOP 2000-2009: GOP 55.3%, Dem 44.7%
Demographics: White 88.3%, Black 6.5%, Hispanic 2.2%, Asian 1.4%
VA-10 (pink)
Frank Wolf has held onto this district the last couple cycles despite major demographic and political shifts. However, this VA-10 loses the western reaches of the current VA-10 (Frederick and Clark Counties, etc.). Under this configuration, the district has a PVI of basically D+0, a perfect toss-up.
2008 Pres: Obama 53.1%, McCain 46.9%
Dem-GOP 2000-2009: GOP 51.7%, Dem 48.3%
Demographics: White 59.5%, Black 9.5% Hispanic 14.8%, Asian 12.6%
VA-11 (orange)
The tentacles of this new majority-minority district (see previous pic under VA-08) reach from its center (more-or-less) in Fairfax County to Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax City, Reston, Centreville, and all the way into Prince William County and the heavily-Hispanic neighborhoods in Woodbridge and Dale City. Whites still form a plurality in the district but Hispanics are in second, meaning that the district could be open for a Hispanic representative (or even another African-American or Asian-American). As you might expect, the district is strongly Democratic.
2008 Pres: Obama 66.8%, McCain 33.2%
Dem-GOP 2000-2009: Dem 61.8%, GOP 38.2%
Demographics: White 38.3%, Hispanic 24.0%, Black 18.0%, Asian 16.0%, Total Minority 58.0%
The final statistical breakdown:
Note: Dev-Deviation from population target, W-White, Min-Total Minority %, B-Black, H-Hispanic, A-Asian. The majority-minority districts are grayed-in.