There have been some rumors that Wisconsin Republicans will use the budget to pass a quick redistricting bill before recalls potentially mess up their trifecta. The "Extraordinary Session" provides a means to do so without much public or legislative oversight. Now I originally thought that they would have to wait until municipalities redraw their ward lines as wards are the basis of Congressional and state legislative districts. That is a process that will not be completed until the fall. However, the Republicans have gone ahead and have drawn a map. Contrary to what I originally thought, there does appear to be some town and city splitting, so the process of redrawing the ward map is relevant. So this could be subject to a lawsuit.
However, I still want to analyze what seems to be a worse case scenario map. Here is the map and some commentary from Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
http://www.jsonline.com/...
To the best of my ability I have drawn these into DRA although without getting a detailed map of the boundaries, a couple of wards might shift around.
So here I go:
Statewide:
Southeast:
Milwaukee and Waukesha Counties:
CD 1 Blue: Surprisingly this map remains largely the same at 50.7 Obama, 48 McCain, which does not change from the current 51-48 Obama. According to Gilbert, Ryan actually drew this map so if he wanted a better district, he could have just drawn Moore's district into Racine. While this district would be uphill for a Democrat to win and hold, it is not impossible and thus Ron Zerban still has a chance. Lean R
CD 2 Green: Baldwin's district does shift west, but those areas are 60+ Obama areas and it keeps Beloit and Dane counties so it remains safe at 70-28.5 Obama, which actual improves a point from the current 69-30. If Baldwin does pull the trigger for Senate, a Democrat will be sure to succeed. Safe D
CD 3 Red: After giving Kind the challenge of his career last year by none other than likely recall loser Kapanke, I think the RPW acknowledges that there are just too many Democratic areas for a 6-2 map. Thus, this district helps Duffy by grabbing Stevens Point and Wisconsin Rapids, but helps Kind by losing Republican and fast-growing St. Croix county. At 59.2-39.1 Obama, it improves a little from 58-41 Obama. State Senator Dale Schultz can still give this district a shot as he has regularly won a 60+ Obama district, but it will be an uphill climb against Kind (or even if he runs for Senate, look for State Rep Chris Danou). Likely D
CD 4 Chartreuse: Moore's district needs to expand and conveniently takes up the Democratic North Shore suburbs. I am sure Sensenbrenner will not enjoy not having Shorewood in his district anymore. At 74.1-24.7 Obama, it is only slightly weakened from 75-24 Obama. Safe D
CD 5 Yellow: Sensenbrenner's district remains the most Republican in the state and unfortunately, since Moore's does not expand into Wauwatosa, remains my home district. I was surprised it remains as Republican, but I guess Jim opposed to much weakening of his district. At 41.7-57.1 Obama, it is only slightly weakened from 41-58 Obama. Safe R
CD 6 Teal: Petri's district changes a significant degree by losing Democratic Adams county, but it loses Republican Calumet and most of Dodge, but it gains heavily Republican Ozaukee county. Thus it is a wash. This 50-49 Obama district weakens a little to 49.4-49.1 Obama. Thus, a Democrat can win, but it would be a big hill to climb and even when Petri retires, State Senator Joe Leibham will be the favorite to succeed as he is only 41 and his senate district is actually a little more Democratic. Likely R
CD 7 Orange: The biggest beneficiary of this map is the infamous Sean Duffy. With the previous changes described above and by gaining Vilas and Florence counties which were some of the few to vote for McCain, his district shifts from 56-43 Obama to 53.1-45.1 Obama. So while it is improved by 3 points, Duffy is still vulnerable and would be quite the tossup.
Here is a closeup of Chippewa Falls, which asides from being somewhat Democratic is home to current challenged Pat Kreitlow, who is very formidable. I cannot imagine this will dissuade Kreitlow from running as he is just on the border and can just move a few miles north without the accusation of being a carpetbagger. If Hochul can win from Hamburg and Mary Bono Mack can win when she basically lives in Florida, then I can imagine Kreitlow will not have many issues with his residency. If Kreitlow does not run, State Rep Nick Milroy of Superior would also be a great challenger:
CD 8 Slate Blue: While this district shifts south, the partisan complexion does not change form from 54-45 Obama to 53.5-45 Obama. Like the 7th, this would be a tossup and Outagamie County exec Tom Nelson would be a fantastic challenger as he is a beast at crossover appeal. Although, he probably should get established first before running again.
Overall, this map is a 3-2-3 map or (3-3-2 depending on how you rate CD 1).