I've always wondered about what would happen if there was a black Republican presidential nominee. I actually thought the first black President would be a Republican, probably because of all the talk about Colin Powell running in the 90s. I wonder if black voters, who vote overwhelming Democratic, would jump into the arms of a black Republican presidential candidate. I'm not talking Herman Cain, who I don't even think would win the black vote if he was nominated, but someone like our own Barack Obama - eloquent, good-natured, bright, likeable, and not-partisan (at least not in rhetoric).
Let's pretend that Barack Obama as we know him never came to be and instead in the 1980s, Barack Obama was inspired by Ronald Reagan. Instead of becoming a Democrat, let's say he became a Republican, in the mold of Colin Powell, but perhaps not as moderate on social issues. The Republicans would groom Barack Obama, like they did with Condi Rice, as a future Republican leader, someone who could win over black voters permanently, thereby making it impossible for the Democrats to ever win another election. With rhetoric designed to appeal to African-Americans - strong faith in God, family values, much in the way black pastors talk.
On economic issues, this Barack Obama would talk about bread and butter issues as if he understood what people were going through, but then he'd demand tax cuts for the wealthy and scalebacks in social spending. With careful strategy, he would carve out for himself a moderate image as a reformer in Washington.
Let's say that this Barack Obama is then elected Governor of Virginia, a key state, and during his time as Governor, he becomes overwhelmingly popular among both whites and blacks. He could then point to this success and persuade the Republican establishment to back him. He then wins the nomination against a lackluster group of ultraconservative white Governors and Senators.
In a general election, how would this Barack Obama, Republican Governor of Virginia, do? What would we see happen among African-American voters?
I think the South, already being so Republican, would become very Republican. He would win Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia in landslides. I also think he would do really well in states like Missouri, Iowa, and Indiana.
The Rust Belt would be a possible opening for the Democrat, whoever that was. If it was a Hillary Clinton, I'd say the Democrat would win Appalachia.
New England, with the exception of New Hampshire, which would go Republican, would remain Democratic.
Battleground states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan would go to the Republicans.
This pretty much would be enough to win the electoral college.
The West I think would be a tossup.
Those are my thoughts. What are yours? Do you think the Republicans could nominate a Barack Obama-style politician in the near future, or do you think they'll go after Latinos and nominate a Marco Rubio or a Susana Martinez. Or, could they choose a minority that's not talked about as much - an Indian-American - like Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley. I think it's interesting that there are two prominent Indian-American Republicans when Indian-Americans as a group have really not been represented on the national stage at all (in fact, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall there ever even being an Indian-American Democratic congressperson).
So go ahead, post your thoughts!