After having been relatively negative on the NC maps posted yesterday, I thought it'd be just fair if you guys got a shot to rip my work apart as well.
It's probably not perfect-- McIntyre's vote sink could be better drawn, but it's effective enough.
First of all, a couple statewide and metro area shots:
Now for the Congressional districts:
NC-01:
Incumbent: G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson)
50.2% Black VAP (which is stagnant under these lines since 2000, so it probably won't fall below 50.0 within the decade)
39.2% White VAP (falling quickly, by the end of the decade this will be 50-33 or so)
10.6% Other VAP (mostly Hispanic)
69.0% Obama
30.5% McCain
Not worth much of a comment. It's majority-black, while not overwhelmingly so, and Butterfield should be happy with this. The Raleigh portion in the district is huge, but not huge enough to trigger a successful primary (150.000 roughly)
Safe D
NC-02:
Incumbent: Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn), Brad Miller (D-Raleigh)
56.6% McCain
42.6% Obama
Ellmers gets a completely safe seat and gets rid of most the annoying areas in Cary and Southern Raleigh that both grow very quickly and trend Democratic just as quickly.
The part of the Triangle left in her district is not big enough to ever endanger her. Brad Miller lives here and could try to run here, but more likely he could try to primary Perdue or push David Price to retire and try to move to his district.
Safe R
NC-03:
Incumbent: Walter Jones (R-Farmville)
57.4% McCain
41.6% Obama
The Republican gets a district that is completely safe against any Democrat, but he also adds in a very, very large amount of new territory- I guess more than half of his district is new, maybe up to 60%, opening the occasionally mavericky Jones up to a primary challenge.
Safe R
NC-04
Incumbent: Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk)
58.3% McCain
40.4% Obama
The old NC-04 in Raleigh disappears from the map, and since Virginia Foxx' district also substantially alters its form, it gets renumbered.
Instead of being used to crack the Triad, this district now takes in some of the ancestrally Democratic, but nowadays Republican mountain counties that still support Heath Shuler. Rep. Foxx usually underperforms the Presidential numbers in her districts, but here she should be more than safe.
Safe R
NC-05:
Incumbent: David Price (D-Chapel Hill)
77.9% Obama
21.4% McCain
45.0% White VAP
38.3% Black VAP
10.5% Hispanic VAP
6.3% Other VAP
I'm in love with this district, I also used it for my 10-3 map, and it is perfect. Not only is it a super-effective vote sink, it also royally screws over David Price by putting him into a majority-minority seat, where a Triad African-American Democrat could and probably will mount a primary challenge to Price... or Miller, if he decides to move and run here. Calling State Sen. Gladys Robinson (D-Greensboro)...
Safe D
NC-06
Incumbent: Howard Coble (R-Greensboro)
57.9% McCain
41.0% Obama
Coble lives in this seat, but just a few hundred feet away from the district borders. This district is instrumental for cracking Raleigh, since it takes in the fast-Dem trending and growing Cary and completely drowns it out by adding hundreds of thousands of Republicans in rural mid-NC. That part of the state is about 75-77% Republican and it won't vote for any Democrat, white and conservative or not.
Safe R
NC-07
Incumbent: Open Seat
McCain: 58.4%
Obama: 40.5%
This seat will be vacant because Mike McIntyre gets a nice Democratic seat in Fayetteville.
There's no way the Democrats win this election because not even most of the ancestrally Democratic conservative areas in the old 7th are still here, this is just plain Republican.
Safe R
NC-08:
Incumbent: Sue Myrick (R-Charlotte), Larry Kissell (D-Biscoe)
58.6% McCain
40.6% Obama
Larry Kissell has just narrowly been drawn into this seat, which is 75% White Charlotte suburbia and will be a safe hold and nice district for popular Republican Sue Myrick's old age. She's too old to challenge Hagan in 2014, so she just can build up some more seniority here and then retire in 2020 or something like that.
Safe R
NC-09
Incumbent: Open Seat
McCain 56.0%
Obama 43.1%
There will be a bloody Republican primary for this open seat, I'm sure, but that doesn't change the fact that Democrats won't be able to play here. While it is one of the two weakest Republican seats on the map, this area of the state isn't one of those that are trending Democratic.
Safe R
NC-10
Incumbents: Patrick McHenry (R-Cherryville), Heath Shuler (D-Waynesville)
McCain 57.8%
Obama 41.1%
No way in hell that Shuler survives this district. He retains less than 50% of his constituents, and the ones he loses are his base: Asheville and ticket-splitting Conservative Democrats northeast of Asheville who vote Shuler-McCain. Gastonia Republicans won't be that nice to him.
Safe R
NC-11
Incumbent: Mike McIntyre (D-Lumberton)
60.0% Obama
39.3% McCain
White VAP: 46.4%
Black VAP: 33.7%
Native VAP: 8.7%
Hispanic VAP: 7.8%
Other VAP: 3.4%
I don't understand the instinct of the people who want to set up a Kissell-McIntyre primary. Kissell might actually win, and then he would be a reliable Democratic vote in a safe seat, while McIntyre would still vote with Republicans a singificant amount of the time.
Needless to say, if McIntyre can survive his current district, this will be a doozy for him.
Safe D
NC-12
Incumbents: Mel Watt (D-Charlotte)
48.5% White VAP
34.5% Black VAP
11.4% Hispanic VAP
5.6% Other VAP
69.2% Obama
30.0% McCain
This is I think the one real novelty in this map. Instead of drawing the Charlotte district north to the Triad, east to Fayetteville or just staying in Buncombe County, I use it to crack Shuler's district and take in Asheville. It's still majority-minority, but just narrowly so, potentially opening Watt up to a primary challenge... maybe even from Shuler himself?
Safe D
NC-13
Incumbent: Open Seat
McCain 56.0%
Obama 43.0%
This will be the third possibility for GOP legislators to move up to Congress.
The politics are essentially the same as in NC-09: It's one of the weakest Republican seats on the map, but still very solid and not trending Democratic.
Safe R.
I'm pretty sure that every single one of the 9 Republican districts will elect a Republican for the whole decade. Plus, the map is not that ugly.
What do you think?