The big news at the statewide Democratic Party of Wisconsin convention this weekend was the announcement of the 2012 recall campaign against Gov. Scott Walker. A close second, however, was that short of actually saying "I'm in," Rep. Tammy Baldwin did everything she could to make it clear that she was running for U.S. Senate in 2012. If she does run and is successful, she would be the first openly LGBT U.S. senator.
At the convention, there were dozens of signs reading "Tammy Baldwin 2012," including a person walking around with a sandwich board coated in four such placards. (You can see a example of the signs on the right.) Even though the signs were paid for by "Tammy Baldwin for Congress," and thus could be interpreted as promoting a 2012 re-election campaign to the U.S. House, they are not the sort of paraphernalia produced by an incumbent running for re-election in heavily Democratic area 17 months before election day.
Baldwin's speech at the convention was also coated in not-so-subtle hints of a future run. She opened by thanking Sen. Herb Kohl, whose retirement has created the open Senate seat in Wisconsin. She followed up by thanking Russ Feingold, who himself has not closed the door on a possible Senate run. Further, she talked about breaking glass ceilings and how Wisconsin has "proven pundits wrong" in the past by being a trailblazing state. All of this came off as an acknowledgment of the historical place her campaign would occupy, as well as a pre-buttal to charges that she would not be electable.
State Rep. Mark Pocan
Rep. Ron Kind spoke immediately after Baldwin at the convention. After an introductory video, he opened his speech with an emphasis on electability, pointing out that he has survived the Republican wave in 2010 despite being targeted by outside corporate money. If Kind and Baldwin do face off in the primary next year, expect "history vs. electability" to be the primary axis of debate.
It's worth noting that being out and open does not seem to be hurting Baldwin in the polls. According to PPP, Baldwin leads potential Republican candidates by an average of 5.5%, while Kind leads those same candidates by an average of 4.5%. (Feingold, who is still well-liked in the state despite his 2010 defeat, leads by a whopping 13%). As we have seen on same-sex marriage polling, attitudes on homosexuality are changing rapidly in this country. It's likely that the percentage of swing voters who would turn against a candidate just because that candidate is LGBT is shrinking rapidly as well.
Finally, if Baldwin does run for Senate in 2012, state Rep. Mark Pocan has already announced that he will run for Baldwin's seat in the U.S. House. Pocan, who coined the term "Fitzwalkerstan" and whose district includes the area around the state Capitol in Madison, is also openly gay. So, it's possible that by 2013, Madison will be represented by both an LGBT Senator and an LGBT member of the House.