So I finally took the plunge and decided to try Dave's Redistricting App (2.2!) this past weekend. Seeing as how my Facebook is flooded with updates from the Wisconsin recall attempts, I decided that the Badger State was the most appropriate place for my inaugural stab at the application. On a related note, this is also my first diary entry, so pardon my April Ludgate-esque excitement.
Chief Disclaimer:
I am not from Wisconsin, so I am basing my lines on just the map and 2008 election results alone. Although I'm attuned to some of the geopolitical dynamics of the state and how it translates electorally (aka the yin and yang that is Waukesha and Dane), I apologize in advance if this proposal is not compact or inadvertently cracks inseparable counties and communities of interest.
Overview:
At best, it's 8-0 or 7-1 Democratic, at the very worst, 4-4. I tried to create a competitive map that gives an edge to the Democrats without creating too overly distended districts. My objectives are threefold:
1) Shore up ancestrally/traditionally Democratic districts.
2) Maintain Democratic strongholds but try not to pack them with too many Democrats in one district creating a vote sink at the expense of viable takeover or strengthening opportunities elsewhere.
3) Weaken current Republican districts by having them go into new areas and diluting their current bases of power and strength.
In depth:
District 1 (red)
Home to none other than the P90X-powered Medicare buster that is Paul Ryan, the new 1st maintains most of its current shape and is still anchored by Kenosha and Racine in the east and Janesville (Ryan's hometown) to the west. However, it sheds its Milwaukee areas to accommodate all of Rock County in its western edge - most importantly, the Dem-leaning western portion of Rock County that is not part of the 1st now. This current configuration makes the 1st a little more Dem friendly than it is now.
Current configuration: 51.4% Obama - 47.5% McCain
New configuration: 53.2% Obama - 45.3% McCain
District 2 (yellow)
The new 2nd maintains most of its current shape. It's still anchored in Madison and continues to be a Democratic stronghold. However, it now lurches eastwards to take in some of good old Waukesha County.
Current configuration: 69% Obama - 30% McCain
New configuration: 64.7% Obama - 33.9% McCain
District 3 (orange)
Like the new 1st and 2nd, the new 3rd also maintains most of its current shape, being anchored by La Crosse. However, it sheds Eau Claire to the new 7th. To compensate, it does take in Dem-leaning Adams and Columbia Counties.
Current configuration: 58% Obama - 41% McCain
New configuration: 57.5% Obama - 40.9% McCain
District 4 (lime green)
The first of a few big changes occurs in the 4th. It sheds its northwestern finger to the new 5th as it stretches westwards into Waukesha County and southwards into the areas that the old 1st took in. Although still anchored in urban Milwaukee and keeps West Allis and very much a Dem stronghold, it's no longer the blue vote sink that it is now and demographics do shift with the loss of the northwestern finger - which is predominantly minority-majority. The current 4th is 54.8% White, 33.4% Black, and 11.2% Hispanic. The new 4th will be 65.9% White, 16.2% Black, and 13.2% Hispanic. I may play around with this and the new 5th.
Current configuration: 75% Obama - 24% McCain
New configuration: 64% Obama - 35% McCain
District 5 (grape)
Is Sensenbrenner toast? Maybe so, as he will probably be too conservative under these new lines. The blissfully major shift to the political center in the new 5th makes the slight shift in the new 4th pale in comparison. The new 5th sheds it Waukesha County crutch and takes in more Democrats by way of Milwaukee (aka the area that the new 4th lost). Another change is that rather than lurching southwards, it now goes westwards taking in most of Dodge County. It also loses the northern portions of Ozaukee and Washington Counties. Demographically, the district also goes from being 95.3% White and 1.3% Black to 73.1% White and 17.6% Black.
Current configuration: 41.3% Obama - 57.7% McCain
New configuration: 50.3% Obama - 48.6% McCain
District 6 (sky blue)
Shape-wise, the new 6th does not look anything like its current incarnation. Although anchored in Sheboygan - that's pretty much all that's left. The district loses Dodge, Manitowoc, and Adams Counties, as well as the cities all along the Lake Winnebago basin. To compensate, the district goes northwards, taking in the western half of the current 8th. I call this new, expansive district the "Coast-to-Coast" district, as it stretches from the Lake Michigan coast in Sheboygan to the western shore of Green Bay (the actual body of water) in Marinette to the Lake Superior coast in Iron County. Although still the most Republican district in my scheme - it is swingish at best, as it takes in the very blue Menominee County and Indian Reservation.
Current configuration: 49.91% Obama - 48.72% McCain
New configuration: 48.8% Obama - 49.7% McCain
District 7 (lilac)
The new 7th maintains most of its current shape: It still anchored by Stevens Point, Wausau, Ashland, Rice Lake, Marshfield, and Wisconsin Rapids. However, it loses some of its eastern territory to the new 6th - such as Oneida and Lincoln Counties. This loss is offset and the district made slightly more Democratic with the inclusion of Eau Claire. Will these new lines will be enough to knock off Sean Duffy? Will Pat Kreitlow be competitive here? I hope so.
Current configuration: 55.9% Obama - 42.5% McCain
New configuration: 56.4% Obama - 41.8% McCain
District 8 (light gray)
Greatly transformed, the new 8th is made slightly more Democratic and takes in the Lake Winnebago basin cities that the current 6th will lose. Still anchored in Green Bay, De Pere, and Appleton and keeping the peninsular eastern section of the district, the 8th will now dip southwards to take in Dem-leaning Menasha, Neenah, Oshkosh, Fond du Lac, New Holstein, and Manitowoc.
Current configuration: 53% Obama - 45% McCain
New configuration: 54.9% Obama - 43.5% McCain
Thoughts?
Comments?
All input is appreciated. I'm working on Nevada and Washington right now.