PPP: Virginia still welcoming to President Obama
A variety of polls released early in the cycle have shown President Barack Obama either trailing in states that he carried in 2012, or in a considerably more perilous position than he found himself in 2008.
One state that has been markedly different in that regard has been Virginia. Even as the president's numbers have flagged nationally, and in other key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, Obama has maintained a firewall in the Commonwealth. Without question, Virginia has become an essential ingredient on Obama's path to 270.
New numbers out today from our friends at PPP confirm that fact.
Public Policy Polling (PDF). (7/21-7/24. Virginia Voters. May results in parentheses)
Barack Obama (D) 47 (51)
Mitt Romney (R) 43 (40)
Barack Obama (D) 48 (--)
Rick Perry (R) 39 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 49 (--)
Michele Bachmann (R) 40 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 49 (--)
Herman Cain (R) 38 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 51 (55)
Sarah Palin (R) 37 (40)
This was a pretty red-tinted sample: the sample split evenly between McCain voters and Obama voters, despite the fact that Obama carried Virginia with relative ease in 2008. Republicans outnumbered Democrats, something that also occurred during the disastrous 2009 elections in Virginia.
Given the red-tinted sample, and the president's middling numbers nationally as of late, there has to be some small measure of comfort in team Obama that they hold the state in spite of all that. As PPP's president Dean Debnam notes:
The leads may be tenuous but it is notable that Obama remains ahead in Virginia even during a period where he is struggling nationally. This really looks like it will be a pivotal, perhaps the most pivotal, state in next year’s election.”
The one inherent advantage that Obama has is that his 2008 coalition gives him nearly an additional 100 electoral votes of cushion. If Virginia stays blue, and all early signs are that it will, there are 13 EVs that come off the board for the GOP. Those could be the difference between reelection and a painfully narrow margin of defeat.