Is Virginia becoming a blue state?
With virtually all of the attention in the political world devoted to matters of debt and DC haggling, it'd be forgiveable for one to think that there was no other political news this week.
To be sure, the political countretemps in DC spilled over to the world of polling and electoral news this week, with new polling suggesting that there are, truly, few winners in this latest round of fisticuffs between the president and the Republican contingent on the Hill.
That said, there was a little bit of good polling news this week for President Obama. He still appears to be holding his own in two key states in his 2008 coalition, and the GOP field still appears undefined and underwhelming. Add to that a couple of more states that edged closer to clarifying their 2012 maps, and there was at least some electoral chatter worth perusing.
So, with that in mind, head to the other side of the jump for the week that was on the campaign trail, in a (mostly) debt ceiling-free edition of the weekend digest.
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
NATIONAL POLLS: Trial heat numbers were in semi-short supply this week, as the debt ceiling kerfluffle took away most of the political oxygen. That said, there were a couple of data points to peruse, with one set of decent numbers for the president, and one highly-publicized data point that was simply awful for Barack Obama.
Good news first: Opinion Research offered up the maiden polling effort for an outfit called the Public Religion Institute. Their verdict? President Obama would lead either Mitt Romney (44-36) or Michele Bachmann (45-37) by margins larger than he tallied against John McCain in 2008. Interestingly, this is among the first polls to show an equivalent spread against the president for either Romney or Bachmann. Given the spread (eight points), that speaks more to a Romney fade than a huge Bachmann surge.
Now, the bad news. Tracking polling by Gallup shows that the high-profile fight over the debt ceiling might be taking a toll on the president. Gallup's daily tracker on Friday had Obama at an all-time low on job approval (40/50). While the debt ceiling might be the catalyst for the approval dip, newfound pessimism over the economy may well be as large a factor, if not more so. Gallup's "Economic Confidence Index" was also at an all-time low on Friday, coming in at a dismal -49.
Democracy Corps, as a counterpoint, found that the GOP's delegation in Congress were the ones taking the bigger hit with the electorate, particularly among independent voters.
Pew also polled the president's support this week, pairing him against "Generic Republican." Obama performed markedly worse against the fearsome G.R. than he did earlier in the year, but he maintained a lead (41-40) nevertheless.
On the primary front, let's begin with a little housekeeping. Last week's weekend digest reported on the general election nums from the ABC/WaPo poll, but did not post the GOP primary numbers. Without further ado: the ABC/WaPo poll gives Mitt Romney a reasonably big lead (26%), with Sarah Palin (16%) and Michele Bachmann (13%) the only contenders in double digits. Gallup also looked at the Republican field, and found a total mish-mash at the head of the field. Check this out: the top five were Romney (17%), Rick Perry (15%), Palin (12%), Rudy Giuliani (11%), and Bachmann (11%). Pew, essentially, split the difference. They had Romney out front as well, but with a smaller share of the vote (21%) than did ABC/WaPo. Perry (12%), Palin (11%), and Bachmann (11%) rounded out the top four.
Finally, the weekly offering from the 'net only polling from YouGov was a mixed bag for the president. While Obama's job approval was still pretty weak (42/48), he nevertheless maintained solid leads over either Michele Bachmann (50-41) or Rick Perry (50-36).
IN THE STATES: Our polling pals at PPP looked at a pair of states over the past week, and all of them yielded news that would have to elicit cheers in Camp Obama. The more pleasant surprise, arguably, came in Michigan. While Barack Obama carried the state comfortably in 2008, it was a state that went sharply in the GOP's direction in 2010, and with semi-native son Mitt Romney as a potential GOP nominee, there were fears that a normally reliable set of 16 electoral votes might shift from blue to red. PPP's poll indicates that, at present, Obama can still count on Michigan. Even when paired against Romney, PPP gave Obama the modest edge (47-42). When paired against other GOP hopefuls, the margins were essentially the same as 2008: Obama led the field by 15-19 points.
Meanwhile, in the pivotal '08 state of Virginia, the margins may have been smaller, but the President still maintained an edge over the entirety of the Republican field. Romney, as is often the case, came the closest, holding the president to a four-point lead (47-43). Against the quartet of Perry, Palin, Bachmann, and Cain, the margin stretched out to leads larger than his seven-point win over John McCain. Obama's lead over the GOP peanut gallery ranged from 9-14 points.
One non-PPP poll to report this week, as well. It comes from none other than GOP pollster and renowned (reviled?) messaging dude Frank Luntz. Luntz's crew polled Connecticut, and found Barack Obama well in control of the state's seven electoral votes. The margin for the president stood at 13 points over Mitt Romney (49-36). No other options were tested.
PPP also checked out some GOP primaries on the statewide level. The common theme: Michele Bachmann is a legit co-favorite, and Rick Perry immediately vaults to the first tier of candidates. For the specific nums, you can check out their entries from North Carolina and New Jersey.
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
THE POLLS: PPP's polls in Virginia and Michigan also had Senate components to them, as well. Some Republicans cheered lustily at the news that former Rep. Peter Hoekstra was getting into the Senate race a few weeks back. PPP's poll in Michigan, however, hinted that their optimism is only partially justified. While Hoekstra kept incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow within single digits, it was only barely so (50-41). If there's any consolation for GOPers, Hoekstra's launch prevented a blowout: Stabenow had easy double-digit edges over the rest of the field.
Meanwhile, in the high profile "clash of the titans" in Virginia, PPP's latest poll gave the Democrats the slimmest of advantages in holding this critical open seat. Democratic former Gov. Tim Kaine held a three-point edge (46-43) over former GOP Sen. George Allen. Kaine's sizeable lead with independents held pave his modest lead.
The aforementioned Luntz poll in Connecticut tried hard to push respondents to the right. In spite of that, Democrat Chris Murphy still led all GOP comers. Against former GOP Rep. Chris Shays (and this poll seems to have been a tool to lure him into the race), Murphy led 42-40. Against '10 nominee Linda McMahon, Murphy's lead grows to blowout status (52-36). The other Dem frontrunner (Susan Bysiewicz) also held a sizeable lead over McMahon (49-41), though the Luntz nums claimed that Shays held a double-digit edge over Bysiewicz (48-37).
Meanwhile, in Indiana, we had dueling data in the much-watched GOP Senate showdown between longtime Sen. Richard Lugar and teabagging challenger Dick Mourdock. Earlier in the week, Mourdock threw down a CfG sponsored poll by Basswood Research giving him a 34-32 lead over the incumbent. Lugar retaliated with a "back 'atcha" poll on Friday, showing him up by fourteen points (45-31) over the challenger.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Interesting rumors out of the great Northwest: is it possible that Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell might get a legit challenger in Washington, after all? The man in question is Rep. Dave Reichert, who hails from the King County suburbs and would probably be the most formidable statewide foe for Cantwell. Rumors are percolating yet again that he may make a bid. But the counterargument is that Reichert might be pulling what could dubbed the Matheson strategy: hinting at a statewide bid in order to keep his district from getting altered too dramatically in the redistricting process. Stay tuned.
- Meanwhile, 3000 miles away, a good old fashioned clusterfuck may well be underway in Florida, and the Dems couldn't be happier. Mike Haridopolos, who just left the Senate race last week after being the establishment darling for a little while, made it clear that he will not, under any circumstances, support the new establishment frontrunner: state legislator Adam Hasner. He also added, as an additional shot at Hasner, that he was hoping a "principled conservative" would come along for him to support. Meanwhile, the rumor mill continues to churn about new prospective GOP candidates, with Rep. Vern Buchanan among the latest names to be bandied about.
- Scott Brown didn't have the best PR week ever in Massachusetts. The entire Massachusetts congressional delegation gathered together to lend their voices to the "It Gets Better" campaign, which focuses on trying to provide support to young people in the gay community. The sole no-show was Brown. When his PR flack trotted out the shopworn "he's too worried about the economy to focus on anything else", he opened the door for an enterprising reporter to figure out exactly what Brown had been up to. Here's a hint: it didn't really have jackshit to do with the economy.
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
THE MAPS: With polls still few and far between on the House side (patience, children), we will continue this digest's focus on the wave of redistricting which continues from coast to coast. One of the biggest prizes in the redistricting game came close to finalizing their plans this week. The independent commission in California agreed to their newest set of maps, which will almost certainly be finalized in mid-August. As had long been rumored, incumbency took a back seat, as several longtime members found themselves without a seat when the music stopped. The movement should be furious over the next few months. Our own David Jarman checked out the numbers on Friday. His conclusion? Similar to other folks, he thinks the Democrats probably net around four seats in the remap.
Meanwhile, the GOP is looking at a net gain of one seat in South Carolina. The Palmetto State's increasing population netted them a seventh House seat, and the GOP-dominated legislature actually spent some time engaged in an internecine battle over how to draw the new seat up. With that mini-war now quelled, the GOP looks likely to send a 6-1 delegation to the House post-2012, with Rep. Jim Clyburn leading an overwhelmingly Democratic district.
North Carolina also finished up their screwjob redistricting process. The new map, which is designed to turn a 50-49 Obama state into a 10-3 Republican delegation, passed the legislature this week. Recall, of course, that this is one of the few states where the governor plays no role in the process. Therefore, Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue was powerless to stop the GOP-led lege from gerrymandering their little hearts out.
West Virginia is in the planning stages, and a good sign for the Democrats might be the bleating coming from the GOP side. It looks like the new map will split the northern two thirds of the state vertically, thus throwing GOP freshman Rep. David McKinley and veteran GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito into the same district.
Utah might also be a touch closer to resolving its issue of what to do with their sole Democratic member of Congress (Jim Matheson). As David noted earlier in the week, Dems seem unhappy with the map, but it might be for the counterintuitive reason that it might keep Matheson in the House, since SLC was largely left intact.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- The list of retirees from the House on the Democratic side grew by two this week, but under decidedly disparate circumstances. Veteran Rep. David Wu (OR-01) elected to resign on Tuesday, amid growing pressure in the wake of accusations of a non-consensual sexual event late in 2010 with the daughter of a political supporter. Wu's resignation came one day after longtime conservative Democratic Rep. Mike Ross (AR-04) announced his retirement. Ross left the House under very different circumstances: Ross is a near-certain 2014 gubernatorial candidate, and perhaps was concerned by a less-than-favorable district offered up to him by Democratic state legislators in what proved to be a disappointing redistricting process.
- A few weeks back, we noted that the open seat in TX-14 might lure former Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson back into elective politics. That may be right, or might be just a little off. There is now actually an open question as to where Lampson will run in 2012. While TX-14 is still a very real possibility, Lampson might also run in the newly-crafted TX-36. He might also take a shot at the state's open-seat Senate race.
- Joe Walsh, should he leave the increasingly blue turf of IL-08 in favor of the more favorable climes in IL-14, will be carrying a shitload of baggage with him if he does head there. In the wake of a little love earlier in the week from the Club For Growth (who endorsed him over Randy Hultgren in a potential GOP-on-GOP incumbent primary), he got a little legal love as well, as he was slapped with a charge of being tardy in paying child support. What could be worse than that? How about the fact that while Walsh was going in arrears in his child support to the tune of six figures, he was loaning his own campaign $35,000. Classy.
THE RACE FOR THE STATEHOUSE
THE POLLS: Only one statehouse to report on this week, but it is a biggie. In the state of Wisconsin new polling from PPP, on behalf of SEIU and Daily Kos, show that Democrats are tantalizingly close to reclaiming the state Senate via the recall process. Earlier polls showed that two Republican senators (Randy Hopper and Dan Kapanke) trailed their Democratic challengers. This week's poll showed that a third Republican (Luther Olsen) also trails his Democratic rival, Fred Clark (49-47). What's more, the two Republicans that (according to the conventional wisdom) seemed "safer" only held leads of four and five points. We are less than two weeks away from Recall Tuesday in Wisconsin, and the numbers confirm that this thing is going down to the wire. Always nice to have genuine political/electoral excitement in July and August!
Meanwhile, in gubernatorial polling news, a new PPP poll in Utah helps us understand why local Dems might want Jim Matheson gerrymandered out of the House. He is, far and away, the sole Dem capable of giving incumbent Republican Gov. Gary Herbert a real run next year. Herbert held just a two-point edge over Matheson (45-43). If Matheson stands pat in the House, or guns for the Senate instead, this looks to become a non-race. When paired with either 2010 challenger Peter Corroon or former AG Jan Graham, Herbert's lead ballooned to between 23-27 points.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- It's only a tweet, but it is an interesting one. If the RGA seems less than inclined to engage in the Kentucky gubernatorial race this year, Hotline's Reid Wilson might know why. According to him, it is because Republicans "privately think they'll lose." Polls, indeed, have shown incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear with a comfortable edge over GOPer David Williams.
- Perhaps the only good news for Democrats in North Carolina: even though she's getting smooshed in most polls, incumbent Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue did lead Republican Pat McCrory in the money race. She raised $1.3 mil in the first half of the year, which topped McCrory by better than $300,000. She had a similar edge in cash-on-hand, as well. Meanwhile, yesterday Perdue kinda, sorta confirmed that she would, indeed, be seeking re-election.
- In what promises to be among the most competitive gubernatorial races next year, Democrat Jay Inslee might be giving himself a seven-figure boost in Washington. Inslee began the process of transferring his federal fundraising warchest (which is north of $1 million) to a statewide account for use in his gubernatorial campaign. His likely GOP rival, Rob McKenna, plans to contest this transfer, but it seems unlikely to be a successful challenge. Recent polls have shown Inslee pulling into the slightest of leads over McKenna.