New Jersey has a bipartisan redistricting commission set to release a map...soon. I guess. So far, the commission has played its cards pretty close to the chest, with a few reports of clashes between the Christie administration and the tiebreaker on the commission leaking out.
I'm pretty much a novice at New Jersey politics, so I'm anxious to get feedback on my envisioning of what a commission-drawn map would look like. My goal in drawing it was to try to maintain communities of interest; draw at least two incumbents into the same district(s); and create an open seat.
This is what I came up with. Three incumbents are placed into a new "inland elbow" district in North Jersey, while a new open "coastal elbow" district is created adjacent from it. I decided on this configuration because let's face it, the current NJ-07 and NJ-12 look stupid.
This is really a "good government" map at heart, and while it may be that a bipartisan (rather than nonpartisan) commission won't draw anything like it, I wanted to moot the possibility - and see what the result was. Edited to note: There is a bit of weirdness in the New York suburbs, and that is due to our friend the Voting Rights Act.
Just a few townships are split where it was necessary to maintain close to even population between districts, or for the sake of the VRA. I tried to avoid it and largely succeeded.
NJ-01 (blue) - Rep. Robert Andrews (D): 63.4% Obama, 36.6% McCain
NJ-02 (green) - Rep. Frank LoBiendo (R): 56.3% Obama, 43.7% McCain
NJ-03 (purple) - Rep. Jon Runyan (R): 50.6% Obama, 49.4% McCain
NJ-04 (red) - Rep. Scott Garrett (R): 42.6% Obama, 57.4% McCain
NJ-05 (yellow) - Rep. Frank Pallone (D): 46.8% Obama, 53.2% McCain
NJ-06 (teal) - Reps. Chris Smith (R), Leonard Lance (R), and Rush Holt (D): 57.6% Obama, 42.4% McCain
Note: Some votes are missing in DRA from the Trenton area. This means the McCain vote here is likely exaggerated.
NJ-07 (orange) - Rep. William Pascrell (D): 63.3% Obama, 36.7% McCain
NJ-08 (slate blue) - Rep. Steven Rothman (D): 57.8% Obama, 42.2% McCain
NJ-09 (cyan) - Rep. Donald Payne (D): 89% Obama, 11% McCain
Note: Some votes are missing in DRA from part of Essex County. This means the McCain vote here is likely exaggerated.
NJ-10 (magenta) - Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R): 50.2% Obama, 49.8% McCain
NJ-11 (chartreuse) - Rep. Albio Sires (D): 68.7% Obama, 31.3% McCain
Note: Some votes are missing in DRA from Jersey City. This means the McCain vote here is likely exaggerated.
NJ-12 (cornflower blue) - OPEN: 59.6% Obama, 40.4% McCain
Taking into account incumbency, I've identified at least three swing districts on the map (NJ-02, NJ-03, and NJ-06), making this a 6-3-3 map:
My guess is that LoBiendo's faux-moderate profile and seniority would allow him to weather the average election cycle unless he drew a particularly strong opponent, though if he retired, the seat would be up for grabs. The Republican tilt of NJ-03 should keep Runyan in office. And I think Rush Holt! would probably win the battle of incumbents in NJ-06, benefiting from the Democratic lean of the district as well as his historically strong campaigning; in fact, I think Lance might retire if such a seat were drawn and Smith might jump over to face Pallone in NJ-05 (which I don't consider a swing district on this map due to Pallone's liberal profile - as well as well-known paucity of Trenton connections - and the district's red trend), which would leave Holt with token Republican opposition.
I thought about whether the new NJ-10 could be said to be a swing district, but it's been a solidly Republican seat for decades and Frelinghuysen has destroyed all opposition every two years since taking office. Similarly, I concluded NJ-08 and NJ-12 are probably Democratic enough that while they wouldn't be totally safe, they're not likely to get much NRCC attention. Jun Choi, the former mayor of Edison, would be an odds-on favorite in the latter district next year.
That analysis would give us a likely 7-5 map, with a net loss of one seat for the Republicans:
Thoughts?