PPP: The Granite State is a legitimate toss-up in 2012
Public Policy Polling (6/30-7/5, New Hampshire Voters, April results in parentheses)
Mitt Romney (R) 46 (46)
Barack Obama (D) 44 (47)
Barack Obama (D) 48 (--)
Tim Pawlenty (R) 41 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 49 (--)
Michele Bachmann (R) 42 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 49 (--)
Herman Cain (R) 39 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 53 (56)
Sarah Palin (R) 38 (34)
In 2008, New Hampshire's four electoral votes were a comparably easy get for Barack Obama, as the Granite State went for the Democrat by nearly a 10-point margin. Something of a bellwether, New Hampshire went for Obama by a slightly wider margin than he achieved nationally.
For a while, it has seemed likely that would not be the case in 2012.
Polling throughout the cycle has suggested that, should Mitt Romney (who was elected from neighboring Massachusetts) become the Republican nominee, he could make the state a legitimate coin flip for the Democrats.
The latest offering from our polling partners at PPP, released earlier in the week, confirms that exact finding. What's more: it isn't just about Romney. While the president enjoys a lead over the balance of the GOP field, a few of them would improve on John McCain's 2008 performance.
PPP's Obama-Romney trial heat, for what it is worth, is echoed by a similar poll this week from UNH/WMUR, which gave Romney a four-point edge (47-43) over the president.
Few states turned more violently against the Democrats in the 2010 catastrophe than the Granite State. Recall that not only did New Hampshire Democrats lose both U.S. House districts, they also lost the open-seat Senate contest by nearly 25 points. Even Democratic Gov. John Lynch, accustomed to winning with north of two-thirds of the vote, limped home with a margin of victory in the single digits.
President Obama's job approval rating in the state is underwater, but only slightly (46/49). This is primarily a function of erosion among independent voters, who had a slightly favorable view in April but now break 39/53 in disapproval.
Obama's fate is far from cast in New Hampshire, of course. The race is a coin flip, it's still 16 months to Election Day, and the prospects of a vicious Republican presidential primary keeps growing. Indeed, in the companion poll from PPP of the New Hampshire GOP primary, Romney now leads in New Hampshire over Michele Bachmann by just seven points. He stands at just 25%, a potentially devastating performance in a state that, by all rights, should be a slam dunk for him.
The president's saving grace, electorally, throughout this year has been the relative weakness of his opposition. The more fractured the GOP field becomes, the better his odds of working those fissures in his favor.