First of all, I believe Howard when he says he doesn't intend to run. I also believe people change their minds. Let's look at if he should, and if he does, how he should.
First, IF...
Why run for President? This is the question Roger Mudd asked that got Teddy Kennedy in so much trouble.
There's only one reason. Because you think you can do a better job for the American people than the alternatives, which in this case include an incumbent of your own party. Could Howard do a better job than any of the Republicans? IMHO yes. Could he do a better job than President Obama. IMHO yes.
Why do I think that?
There is a discontent in this country that is broader and deeper than right or left, "tea party" or progressives, certainly Republican or Democrat. It is interesting and illustrative that the current "tea party" isn't the first group to recently use "revolutionary" rhetoric to describe their dissatisfaction with the country's direction. Someone else did it as recently as 2004. That would be...us. "The tea is in the harbor", "Common Sense for a new Century", remember all that? The Dean campaign was in many ways less about progressive values than American values, although I might argue that taken as a whole, progressive values ARE American values.
Let's play with Algebra.
Progressives are dissatisfied with A, B, C
Independents are dissatisfied with D, E, F (which doesn't preclude an overlap between the two).
Is there a "market" for a candidate who can attract both those groups? Is Howard Dean that candidate? It depends on how you chose A+B+C+D+E+F.
Let's look at a few examples, some policy, some political.
The "Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party" is tired of losing. Losing to the Republicans, and losing to the DLC wing of the party. Obama lost the House and almost the Senate in 2010. The Dean-led Democratic Party expanded Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008 (where Obama blatantly copied Dean's 2004 campaign structure). Obama's campaign echoed Dean's, but he threw Dean out of his job as head of the DNC and undid a lot of the 50 state strategy. He promised Change, but has delivered all too much of the same.
Dean was against the war in Iraq before being against the war was cool. So was Obama. But in office, Obama continues to have troops in Iraq (and don't kid yourself, they're not all leaving), and we sent more troops to Afghanistan, and more are fighting over Libya. When does the forever war end?
Let's step away for a moment from progressive red meat and look at independents. What do they want?
There is a populist thread through the discontent in the country. There are many strains of populism, but to misquote W, when it comes to the people "you're either for us, or against us." Many in the country now sees the "military-industrial-government complex" as against them, and they're right. The power of money in the political and governing process has become so pervasive that it dominates Democrats and Republicans. Wall Street thrives while Main Street suffers. Is Dean in a position to deal with that populism? Let's look at the opening of "Common Sense for a New Century".
Over two hundred years ago, Thomas Paine wrote a pamphlet that would light the fire that forged our nation. He called it “Common Sense.” Passed from hand to hand, patriot to patriot, it was a call to action for those Americans who believed their government had to change. It spelled out the values of a new republic...Like those early patriots, we face a growing threat to our liberty and justice in America today. Thomas Jefferson and James Madison spoke of the fear that economic power would one day seize political power.
Reread Common Sense for a New Century. Change a few references and it can be about 2011 as much as 2003. But crucially, we can point at it and say "Look! Dean was saying this in 2003! He saw it even then, long before the populist anger manifested itself as the non-astroturf parts of the "tea party".
And also remember that in 2003. in response to questions from talk show host Chris Matthews regarding how he would handle media ownership matters, Dean said, “[W]e’re going to break up giant media enterprises” because “11 companies in this country control 90 percent of what ordinary people are able to read and watch on their television.”
Dean has a populist record which could motivate independents looking for someone who will work for them, not for the Goldman Sachses of the world.
Let's step away from that for a while and look at the next question.
If Dean was to run, should he primary President Obama or run as an independent/3rd party candidate?
We're all familiar with quadrant charts of various kinds. In this case: reasons to run as a Democrat, reasons against running as a Democrat, reasons to run as an Independent, reasons against running as an Independent.
To simplify, I'll give four for each.
Reasons to run as a Democrat:
1. Howard is a Democrat and former successful Chair of the DNC.
2. The Democrats have a guaranteed ballot spot in all 50 states.
3. Democratic voters may feel uncomfortable voting against a Democratic incumbent President.
4. Progressives are tied by tradition to the Democratic Party.
Reasons against running as a Democrat:
1. There is a Democratic incumbent.
2. African-American voters, who tend progressive, would not abandon Obama
3. Weakening the party by pointing out its candidate's weaknesses in a primary race, no matter who won.
4. Party establishment will be against you.
Reasons to run as an Independent:
1. The American people are angry at both parties.
2. Appeal to voters who would not vote for a Democrat, but would vote for our issues if presented correctly.
3. Dean is a credible independent who has broken from his party leadership in the past.
4. Begin the race for President immediately, not using up funds and time (the only thing you can't get more of) in a primary race.
Reasons against running as an Independent:
1. This system is rigged for the two parties: ballot access, public funding, debates, etc.
2. The U.S has never elected an Independent/3rd Party candidate (well, maybe Lincoln).
3. Progressives are tied by tradition to the Democratic Party.
4. "It would guarantee a GOP victory".
So let's look at these.
A look at the quadrant chart seems to indicate that if Howard ran in the primaries against President Obama, it would be to make a statement, not to try to win the Presidency, and I don't think Howard is interested in doing that. It would cut off his ties to the Democratic Party as certainly as an independent bid, and he'd be competing in the Democratic primaries, where he'd face a combination of those who think Obama is doing a good job, the African American community, and those afraid overturning Obama would guarantee a GOP victory. Absent a "conventional wisdom" in the Democratic electorate that Obama was going to lose (which is unlikely to happen, absent a singular event), I don't see Howard, or anyone, winning a primary battle against Obama.
So, in spite of the challenges of mounting such a bid, I think we should look at the independent/3rd Party route.
Q - Independent or 3rd Party?
IMHO Independent. A run for the Presidency is hard enough without trying to create a party apparatus as well. The less time and money spent on "overhead", the more that's available for the campaign. If we succeed, basing a party on the principles we have put forward in the campaign is a job for 2014 and beyond.
Q – How do we co-opt the “tea party”
There are two faces to the tea party. One is Astroturf, backed by the Koch brothers and the right wing. The other is an honest expression of frustration by “regular Americans” about how the country doesn’t work. We agree the country doesn’t work. We just need to realign their solution set from the GOP to an independent reform effort.
• Use the language of revolution (we already have)
• Define the same enemy (we already have)
• Neuter right wing Astroturf response
• Welcome their input and find common ground (there is a lot)
Some people may not see the parallels between the tea party supporters and the 2004 Dean campaign. There is a part of the tea party which is racist, right wing and unredeemable. But there are also a lot of people who just think "Our country is on the wrong track, and the reason is clear: our government is no longer serving the interests of the people." Those are the words of Howard Dean in 2003, and we can grab a lot of people with that message.
We put the tea in the harbor in 2003.
Q - Where will the money come from?
Same place it did last time. Don't kid yourself. It will be harder this time to raise the money because some of the folks who supported us last time will be supporting President Obama. We'll need to swing the bat harder. I'm all in favor of qualifying for federal funding, and I think using federal funding should be mandatory, but the current system is set up by the two parties and we'd spend all our time jumping through hoops. We'll have to raise it ourselves. We can change the system after we're in.
"The American people have a capacity for great things. We must once again set ourselves on a course to achieve them—based on those values that have sustained America throughout the centuries:
• Justice. In a just America, money should not determine the limits of any American’s future, or deny any American the medical advancements that can save and sustain life. Health insurance, prescription drugs and higher education can be accessible and affordable for everyone.
• Fairness. Our tax burden today falls most heavily on hard work, while wealth is taxed less. We subsidize corporations that are polluting our environment or sending jobs overseas. But we can restore fairness to our tax code—rewarding hard work, ensuring that wealth pays its fair share, and penalizing waste.
Fairness also demands that we address the disparity between the incomes of women and the incomes of men. Closing the wage gap will benefit all Americans.
• Progress. Today, technologies exist that can form the foundation of our economy for the next century. We should invest aggressively in them, just as when our nation invested in railroads, rural electrification, and in public highways.
We can create a new energy economy, relying on sources that will never run out, including solar power, wind power, ethanol and biomass. Doing so will reduce our dependence on foreign oil and create new jobs for decades to come.
• Moral Leadership in the World. Harry S. Truman said, “The only expansion we are interested in is the expansion of human freedom and the wider enjoyment of the good things of the earth in all countries. The only prize we covet is the respect and good will of our fellow members of the family of nations. The only realm in which we aspire to eminence exists in the minds of men, where authority is exercised through the qualities of sincerity, compassion and right conduct.” That is the American role in the world that we can restore.
• Self-Government. We can reform our republic—restoring a democracy in which every person has a voice and our government works for the benefit of all the people.
• Community. We have an obligation to one another as Americans and as human beings. America will be stronger when we recognize that we are dependent on each other, responsible for each other, and connected to each other."
"Our lives are busy and our burdens are many, but together we can revive our democracy. We must renew our commitment to better inform ourselves and others; to question our elected leaders; to conduct a dialogue with our neighbors; and to vote in each election.
To stand up when injustice is done.
To protest when rights are jeopardized.
To unite for the common good.
To fight for what we know is right for our country.
We must do so because, in the words of Thomas Paine: “The sun never shined on a cause of greater worth.”"(1)
From "Common Sense for a New Century", Howard Dean, December 2003