Throughout history, our legislative process has basically worked. The parties have typically acted in good faith for the benefit of the country, notwithstanding differences in opinion.
So normally, I’d simply say that the debt deal is phase 1 of a longer approach. It’s not as bad as it might appear for our side – defense spending is on the chopping block, and a good part of the safety net is protected from the Nov 2011 triggers.
I’d also say the revenue phase is next, and Democrats must now fight like hell to win those concessions. I see it as two main windows:
First off, we have a chance to make revenues a core part of what the Nov 2011 committee carries out.
But if that fails, we have the leverage of the Bush tax cuts expiring at the end of 2012. Worst case, if Congress stalemates over them, all the cuts will expire, and we’ll be back to the Clinton rates in 2013. But then it gets interesting. Assuming Obama wins reelection, he can immediately send a middle-class tax cut bill to Congress, leaving out incomes at the very top. So in the end, the desired result is attained and even Republicans would win by supporting the cut package: they never have to vote for an increase. And if Republicans oppose it, they literally will be choosing to sacrifice the middle class for the wealthy, given that the default position is higher taxes for everybody post expiration.
It’s a little convoluted, but it’s doable.
But here’s the part I can’t figure out, so I’m looking for feedback.
What if Republicans threaten to not raise the debt ceiling again, to protect the cuts at the top? How do we get around that?
The problem is that tea-partiers are willing to kill the hostage for ideological purposes, knowing that Democrats care much more about our credit rating. THIS is the unprecedented dimension here. The far right – really the Republican party – will choose self destruction (an imploded economy) over legislative defeat on taxes.
What’s the answer on this point??????
The best answer I can muster is that we take the issue directly to the people, and hope there are some moderates on the other side willing to listen. The catalyst might be the election -- are teapartiers rewarded or scolded by voters? This seems less than satisfying though. There must be a direct way.