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Senate:
• FL-Sen: As I suggested once before, if you're a Republican who's managed to work your way up to state House Majority Leader, you've inevitably made the kinds of deals and compromises that look like heresy in the eyes of movement conservatives. It's just not possible to be both Republican Jesus and a party wheeler-dealer, as Adam Hasner's been pretending. Dave Catanese has the latest batch of historical memorabilia from Hasner's "moderate" past — click through to see just what sins he's committed.
• MA-Sen: Not that there was any doubt about it, but Eric Fehrnstrom, the senior staffer for both Scott Brown and Mitt Romney, admitted he's behind the "@CrazyKhazei" Twitter account that he'd been using to mock the Democratic Senate field, particularly Alan Khazei. (Background here.) Fehrnstrom was unapologetic, but what I really want to know is how a high-level dude has the time to spend making un-funny tweets for an account that, even after this blew up, still barely has a hundred followers. This is what they're paying this guy for?
• MI-Sen: Rick Snyder is bucking the trend: According to the Hotline's sources, Michigan's Republican governor will actually endorse the apparently unlovable Pete Hoekstra, who has seen several big names already come out for Christian private school entrepreneur Clark Durant. I wonder if this thing could get derailed, though, since the Hotline notes that "[t]he location and other details of the announcement have yet to be finalized." Hmm….
• MN-Sen: Joe Arwood, the unknown first-term member of the St. Bonifacius City Council who we mentioned as a possible candidate the other day, formally became the second Republican to enter the Senate field.
• OH-Sen: PPP has GOP Senate primary numbers out in Ohio. State Treasurer Josh Mandel leads ex-state Sen. Kevin Coughlin 31-12. They also tested a matchup that included disgraced former Ohio State football coach Jim Tressel for the hell of it (I think PPP may be the only one who has even brought his name up); thanks to name rec, Tressel actually leads!
• UT-Sen: The Salt Lake Tribune mentions two other possible Republicans who could take on Sen. Orrin Hatch for the GOP nomination: David Kirkham, "a co-founder of Utah’s tea party and custom car maker," and Morgan Philpot, a former state rep. who nearly unseated Rep. Jim Matheson last year.
• WI-Sen: Hahah! This sounds like some pretty snarkalicious snark from former Dem Rep. Steve Kagen, who offers a "defense" of Republican ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson from the meanies at the Club for Growth:
"I agree with Tommy that we need millions of new jobs to rebuild our economy, doing so in part by closing corporate tax loopholes that ship our jobs overseas. I agree that governments must live within their means, that health care is a right not a privilege, and that every child has a right to a great public education," Kagen said in a statement.
"Let’s agree to elect an independent-minded U.S. senator willing to dedicate his life to building a more peaceful, prosperous and compassionate nation for all of us. I look forward to meeting with Tommy and debating whatever differences he and I may have," Kagen said.
I'm sure Thompson is thrilled to have Kagen come to his side like this! That second graf, of course, also sounds like Kagen is strongly considering getting into the open-seat Senate race himself.
• WI-Sen: PPP had some Wisconsin primary numbers out last week that got a bit eclipsed by Russ Feingold's announcement that he wouldn't run for Senate, but they're still interesting nonetheless. On the GOP side, they find Tommy Thompson up 47-39 over Mark Neumann — not particularly impressive, and in line with that recent Club for Growth poll. PPP also tried its hand at some message testing (something I'd assume they do for campaign clients but which they don't usually include in their public polls), asking Republicans the following question (after the straight ballot test):
While Tommy Thompson was Governor, he more than doubled state spending and increased government bureaucracy. Then he endorsed Obamacare, President Obama’s $1-trillion-dollar government takeover of health care. Given this information, would you vote for Mark Neumann or Tommy Thompson if the primary for Senate was today?
That flipped the vote to 59 Neumann versus just 26 Thompson. As for the Democrats, PPP finds Tammy Baldwin leading Ron Kind and Steve Kagen, 37-21-15 respectively. In a Baldwin vs. Kagen pairing, she's on top 48-19.
Gubernatorial:
• NH-Gov: Ovide Lamontagne, the 2010 GOP Senate hopeful who has been nosing around a gubernatorial run, sounds like he's close to pulling the trigger. He recently told a gathering of Republicans that his wife "approves" of the idea, and that he plans to make a formal announcement after Labor Day.
• WV-Gov: The DGA just released an internal poll by the Mellman Group showing acting Dem Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin up 47-33 over businessman Bill Maloney in the special gubernatorial election this fall. (Note: Election Day is on October 4, not the normal date of November 8.) I have to wonder why the DGA is putting this survey out there, since the numbers are good but not exactly awesome — Maloney obviously is not going to wind up with just 33% of the vote. Dave Catanese suggests that Mellman's memo is "designed to tout positive numbers and simultaneously warn Democrats against taking the race for granted." Sounds about right to me.
House:
• AZ-08: Republican state Sen. Frank Antenori, who wants to run for Congress but doesn't want to run against Gabby Giffords, nonetheless rattled off a whole litany of concerns he has about the congresswoman's health and future. Ya know, these are all things that a lot of people may be thinking, but I'm not sure we've reached the point where it's savvy to start talking about them openly, at least for other politicians. We'll see if Antenori takes any lumps for his candor, or whether this opens the floodgates for more speculation. (Or, I suppose, neither.)
• CA-47: This is interesting. Republican ex-Rep. Steve Kuykendall just announced plans to run in the new 47th CD and will make a formal announcement "within the next few weeks." You may recall that Kuykendall served a single term in the 1990s (i.e., redder) version of CA-36, picking up the seat in 1998 when Jane Harman left it open to unsuccessfully run for governor (and beating now-Rep. Janice Hahn), but losing it right back to Harman in 2000. He's not the only GOPer in the race, though: Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong, who started looking at the seat back in July, officially launched his campaign last week. Also in the race is Dem state Sen. Alan Lowenthal. No incumbents appear to be running here, though it's conceivable Democrat Linda Sanchez could seek re-election here.
• FL-02: GOP freshman Steve Southerland didn't exactly acquit himself very well in a recent town hall:
"And by the way, did I mention? They're shooting at us. There is law-enforcement security in this room right now, and why is that?" Southerland told about 125 people in an auditorium at the Westminster Oaks retirement community. "If you think this job pays too much, with those kinds of risks and cutting me off from my family business, I'll just tell you: This job don't mean that much to me. I had a good life in Panama City."
Shades of Sean Duffy. Anyhow, there's a lot more great stuff in the linked article.
• NC-04: It sounds like it's game on in the redrawn 4th CD: Rep. David Price recently sent out an email to supporters saying he'd seek re-election in the 4th — and that's also where fellow Democrat Brad Miller plans to run. Miller echoed his earlier remarks, saying: “David now represents 33 percent. I represent 31. This district is more of a jump ball” than the first draft of NC-04 that the GOP legislature produced. Neither man has a lot of cash in the bank: Miller has $127K and Price just $72K.
• NH-01: Tom Ferrini, the Democratic mayor of Portsmouth, says he won't seek a third term this fall, and pointedly isn't ruling out a run for higher office. It sounds as though his most likely target could be GOP freshman Frank Guinta in the 1st CD, though the linked article suggests a whole array of different options are possible for Ferrini. But Ferrini insists that he does "not have any present plans to run for higher office," so we'll see.
• NV-02: Americans for Prosperity sent Ray Hagar some .WAV files of portions of the recent robopoll Magellan conducted on their behalf which clearly say Kate Marshall's name correctly — not "Kate Jackson" or some other variant, as some people had claimed. It's a tough charge to rebut even with audio files, so you'll have to decide for yourself how you feel about this one.
• NV-02: Karl Rove's American Crossroads is going in to the Nevada special with a $120K expenditure, mostly on web ads. Meanwhile, Gov. Brian Sandoval cut an ad (see it at the link) on behalf of fellow Republican Mark Amodei.
• NY-09: Good: Democrat David Weprin is launching robocalls lacerating Bob Turner for saying he thinks Ground Zero volunteers should not be covered by the new Zadroga healthcare law. He's enlisted John Feal, a demolition worker and 9/11 volunteer first responder who was a key backer of the Zadroga bill, to make the calls.
Grab Bag:
• 2012: You'll want to bookmark this: our handy, easy-to-read, sortable calendar of non-presidential primary dates for 2012. We've also added a permalink to the Daily Kos Elections sidebar.
• EMILY: Two more endorsements for EMILY's List: East Moline Council Member Cheri Bustos (running in IL-17), and state Rep. Connie Pillich (running in either OH-01 or OH-02, depending upon redistricting).
• FL-Pres: A new Mason-Dixon poll for Ron Sachs Communications has Mitt Romney beating Barack Obama in Florida by a 51-43 spread (up from 48-43 in April), while Rick Perry is up 46-45. Obama leads Michele Bachmann 46-44. President's job approval: 41-56. The GOP primary field goes Romney-Perry-Bachmann 28-21-13.
• WATN?: With his next re-election campaign ten years off, this really needs to get filed under "Where Are They Now?" rather than "WI Sup. Ct.," but it's worth an update anyway: The special prosecutor appointed to investigate the alleged choking incident involving David Prosser has declined to file any charges.
Redistricting Roundup:
• GA Redistricting: The state House easily passed the new GOP-crafted congressional map, though I'm pleased to see that once again, as with the state-level maps, there were no Democratic defections. The state Senate will take up the legislation next week.
• Redistricting: A cool tracker from the site RedistrictingOnline.org lets you keep tabs on every redistricting-related lawsuit filed in all fifty states. Pretty impressive!
