I’ve read a few articles recently discussing a possible conflict in Maryland over redistricting. Apparently, Steny Hoyer wants to draw an Eastern Shore-based Democratic district for Frank Kratovil, while Donna Edwards and others want to preserve District 1 as a Republican vote sink, while drawing a new Democratic seat based partly in western Maryland and Montgomery Co. and/or drawing a new minority-majority 7th Democratic seat somewhere between the Baltimore and Washington DC orbits. At this point, my hunch is that Democrats in Maryland will aim for a 7-1 map. A number of 7-1 versions can very easily be constructed, ofcourse, whereby there are seven solid Democratic seats (including 3 minority-majority seats if that is desired) while one seat becomes a GOP vote sink.
However, I wanted to see what it would take to draw an 8-0 map where the following conditions are all still met:
1.) Two effective black-majority seats are preserved
2.) One new effective minority-majority seat is created
3.) 7 seats should show solid Democratic partisan numbers -- Obama percentage at least in the high 50’s, and all must be at least 60% in terms of “2006-2008 Dem. Avg.” using Dave’s Application; an 8th Democratic seat would be created for Frank Kratovil by making MD-1 into a bare Obama district
4.) All Democratic incumbents must have districts whereby at least 55% of the new district is made up of the district’s current constituents
5.) Eastern Shore is all in one district
I feel that if the above criteria are all met, then an 8-0 map with 3 minority-majority seats can still be drawn for the state. Here’s a possible outline of such a map (my population deviation is +/- 399 persons per district) … I discuss Districts 1-5 and 7-8 first, and then the new minority-majority MD-6.
District 1 (blue) – 49.2 Obama/49.1 McCain (51.1 Dem. Avg./48.9 GOP Avg.)
The Democratic numbers basically go up 9 points, while the GOP numbers go down by 9 points. Kratovil lost by 54-42 in the GOP landslide of 2010, so this district would give him a very decent shot at a comeback. 67% of the new district is made up of current constituents of MD-1.
District 2 (green) – 55.8 Obama/42.0 McCain (60.7 Dem. Avg./39.3 GOP Avg.)
At first glance, the Obama number here may scare you (in terms of the Obama percentage not being high enough). But there is something politically very unique about a huge swath of eastern Baltimore County, which forms the core of this district -- it’s basically the only high-population part of Maryland where Obama performed worse than John Kerry and worse than most other Democrats (in virtually that entire portion of the county -- Dundalk, Essex, Middle River, etc., literally in dozens of precincts, Kerry had better percentages than Obama, and this was also the case in a number of precincts in the northeastern part of Anne Arundel Co.) So, even with the 56% Obama number, my estimate is that Kerry would have won the new district here. You can also see this unique dynamic in the fact that, out of the 5 white-majority districts created by this map, MD-2 has the lowest Obama number yet it also has the second highest 2006-2008 Dem. Avg. number (60.7%).
Additionally, 67% of the new district is made up of Ruppersberger’s current constituents.
District 3 (purple) – 57.7 Obama/40.3 McCain (60.1 Dem. Avg./39.9 GOP Avg.)
The numbers here are only a sliver less Democratic than the existing district, so Sarbanes should be OK. 59% of the new district is made up of Sarbanes’ current constituents.
District 4 (red) – 74.8 Obama/24.2 McCain (72.8 Dem. Avg./27.2 GOP Avg.)
The only “concern” here would be does the new district contain enough of an African-American population ? The new district is 50.7% black and 36.6% white (18+ population is 50.1% black and 38.2% white). However, since Maryland Democratic primaries are closed, my estimate is that blacks would comprise 70-75% of the Democratic primary vote here, thus guaranteeing that an African-American Democrat is elected. 61% of the new district is made up of Edwards’ current constituents.
District 5 (teal) – 58.0 Obama/40.6 McCain (60.2 Dem. Avg./39.8 GOP Avg.)
Less Democratic than currently, but Hoyer would still win handily. An impressive 86% of the new district is made up of Hoyer’s current constituents.
District 7 (gray) - 67.2 Obama/31.3 McCain (65.7 Dem. Avg./34.3 GOP Avg.)
Exact same “concern” here as with MD-4 above re. does the new district contain enough of an African-American population… The new district is 51.3% black and 41.5% white (18+ population is 50.2% black and 43.3% white). Again, my estimate is that blacks would comprise 70-75% of the Democratic primary vote here, thus guaranteeing that an African-American Democrat is elected. 56% of the new district is made up of Cummings’ current constituents.
District 8 (violet) - 60.6 Obama/37.8 McCain (62.3 Dem. Avg./37.7 GOP Avg.)
Noticeably less Democratic than the current MD-8, but Van Hollen would still have no trouble here. A Connie Morella type would be strong here, but since the GOP has gone off the deep end in who they nominate these days, a Morella-type Republican nominee is a virtual impossibility here, thus guaranteeing the election of almost any Democrat (and certainly the politically powerful Van Hollen). 57% of the new district is made up of Van Hollen’s current constituents.
Last but not least …
District 6 (yellow) - 72.9 Obama/25.7 McCain (71.7 Dem. Avg./28.3 GOP Avg.)
This is the new minority-majority district – and not only that, but the new MD-6 actually becomes the seat with the highest minority percentage in Maryland – at only 34.4% white (18+ population is 37.2% white) …. There’s no minority group that is dominant; instead the district is 26.4% hispanic, 25.7% black and 10.5% asian (18+ population is 25.3% black, 24.5% hispanic, 10.8% asian) – it’s intentionally drawn this way in order to give various racial/ethnic groups a chance at a seat if they run a good campaign in the Democratic primary.
So that’s my latest Maryland map .. I was inspired by the enthusiasm of the GOP in North Carolina (they drew a pretty good map there). While a lot of excellent 7-1 maps can be drawn for Maryland, there’s really no reason why 8-0 is not doable.
PS. I've added a few more maps at the end here, for better view of how central Maryland precincts are allocated: