This Georgia Map Started out as an experiment. While it is comparably easy to increase the number of Democratic districts in the Atlanta Area to four, is five possible while remaining within the confines of the VRA?
It is.
I set out to have the following goals under this map.
1. Retain three districts in the Atlanta Metro with a majority African American VAP
2. Create two new districts in Atlanta which are fairly solidly Democratic.
3. Shore up GA-2 slightly, turning it into a VRA district itself (not difficult to do)
4. Turn GA-12 into a solid Democratic district.
I succeeded in all these goals. Going through the Democratic districts: All percentages are in VAP
GA-2 (Green): 50.4% Black (VRA), D+7
The movement of the seat is not surprising - northward into Macon, and pulling out of the former southern reaches which are fairly Republican. Perhaps the most different thing I did was approach Macon from the Southeast rather than the Southwest. The reason for this is because the heavily Republican territory in Houston county can thus be attached to a district to the north instead of the South. This allows GA-2 and GA-12 to directly abut each other. Which is good, because Democratic precincts wrap across the state, more or less, and it means you don’t need to waste a “corridor” of Democratic areas, and only need two complete Republican districts to the South.
GA-12 (Medium Blue): 49.3% White, 43.1% Black, D+9
Despite remaining significantly whiter than GA-2, the district is even safer for Democrats. Essentially, the district trades Republican areas in South Georgia for the college town of Athens, plus some rural counties in the Black belt. There is no way a Republican could win this seat.
On to the Metro!
GA-4 (Red): 50% Black (VRA), D+10
The core of the district, in DeKalb and Rockdale, remains. However, Democratic-trending (but still somewhat red) Newton is added. More importantly, a lot of Republican votes in the whiter parts of Gwinnett are sunk here.
GA-5 (Yellow): 50% Black (VRA), D+15
The district looks, on the surface, pretty similar to the old GA-5. It has lost any precincts in DeKalb, and picked up some to the south. But a very Republican area (northeastern Cobb county) is again dragged into the district.
GA-7 (Grey): 44.7% White, 22.4% Hispanic, 20.9% Black, 10.9% Asian, D+5
This district picks up several different areas. In Gwinnett, it picks up highly racially diverse territory – essentially every precinct which is either Obama or only a few percent McCain. In DeKalb, it picks up the northern, non-black portions of the county. The southern precincts are white and progressive, the northern are white and conservative, and in the middle is a band of Latino neighborhoods. Finally, it takes in around half of Sandy Springs – areas with high minority populations which aren’t entirely unfriendly to Democrats.
Although Republicans have been known to win D+5 seats before, this is generally considered a safe PVI, and I don’t think a Southern Republican could win a seat like this. Considering the demographic changes happening in Gwinnett, I think the district will continue to drift towards Safe D as time passes.
GA-13 (Peach): 50% Black (VRA), D+10
Again the story here is similar to the other two majority black Atlanta districts. The core of the district in Clayton, Henry, and DeKalb is maintained. In fact, the DeKalb section expands slightly. However, the district also takes in the remainder of Henry, all of Fayette, and most of Spalding county - areas which are moderately to heavily Republican. The resulting district is perfectly balanced to satisfy the VRA, yet absorb as many white Republicans as possible.
GA-14 (Puke Brown): 47.9% White, 34.8% Black, 11% Latino, 4.2% Asian, D+5
This district bares a good deal of resemblance to the previous GA-13. Indeed, more precincts may have ended up here, although I think given the demographics David Scott would choose the much safer and majority-black GA-13, which is why it inherited the district number, while this district gets a new one. It is a bit of a hybrid district. One portion of the district is Douglas and the far southern portions of Fulton, which are split fairly evenly between white Republicans and black Democrats. An important salient goes into downtown Atlanta, to scoop up white progressive neighborhoods (allows GA-5 to absorb more white Republicans instead). But the bulk of the district is in southern and central Cobb county. This region is similar to Gwinnett, in that it is more racially diverse than average for the Atlanta area. It’s also Democratic-leaning. I think this district will shift a bit slower than GA-7 towards the Democrats, as immigration rates are a bit lower. On the other hand, I think there is a lot more black suburbanization happening in the southern fringes, so I may be surprised.
I won’t bother listing the 7 Republican districts. Their PVIs rank from R+16 to R+28. It was technically possible to turn GA-1 into an R+10 district by selectively swapping counties with GA-8, but even this wouldn’t be enough to be competitive for a Blue Dog, unless I started stealing Savanna precincts from GA-12. It seems like a crappy deal to turn a solid Democratic district into a swing one to have a 30% shot instead of a 0% shot to take out another Republican.
Thoughts?