Lately I've been drawing a lot of Democratic gerrymanders for states on the Eastern seaboard. This time I'm going to head out west to see what kind of damage Democrats could do if they had the trifecta (as they very nearly do). The answer: a fairly good deal. In what's a currently 4R 3D delegation, the Democrats could turn one Republican seat solidly blue and flip an additional seat from an R+ PVI to a D+ PVI.
More over the flip.
Currently, Dave's App only contains partisan data for 2010, where the numbers are an average of all statewide races. One might think John Hickenlooper's overperformance in the race for governor would skew the statewide numbers, but as it stands the average for the whole state is 52% R 48% D, which is more or less akin to the results of the 2004 presidential race. I know it's imperfect, but I tried to use that as a guideline for guesstimating PVI. I estimated a district with a 55% D average performance to also have voted 55% for John Kerry, which in most of Colorado would make the PVI D+7 or 8. That IMO is a pretty safe PVI.
The whole state:
CO-01
Incumbent: Diana DeGette (D-Denver), Mike Coffman (R-Aurora)
Old Vote: Obama 74 McCain 24
Average: Dem 56 Rep 44
Description: Diana DeGette could probably run in any of the three Denver districts under this map, but her home has been drawn into this one. She wouldn't like this district because it's much less blue than her old district and contains lots of new territory. But it's still safe D as long as she campaigns (probably voted for Obama with 62% or so) and it frees up Democratic voters for other districts. Coffman will probably run in the new 5th or 7th, but he's pretty fucked either way.
CO-02
Incumbent: Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden)
Old Vote (CO-07): Obama 59 McCain 40
Average: Dem 55 Rep 45
Description: Perlmutter easily dispatched highly-touted opponent Ryan Frazier in 2010 and now enjoys an even bluer district. However, instead of being suburban, it's about 50/50 urban/suburban. Still, he should be okay.
CO-03
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote (CO-06): Obama 46 McCain 53
Average: Dem 55 Rep 45
Description: I'm just going to count this as the successor to CO-06, as it has been basically deleted in this map and this is a new suburban district. Well, actually, it's another district that mixes suburbs with Denver. And it's another district that a liberal Democrat shouldn't have problems with.
CO-04
Incumbent: Jared Polis (D-Boulder)
Old Vote (CO-02): Obama 64 McCain 34
Average: Dem 56 Rep 44
Description: Gay liberal Jews, unite! Boulder liberal Polis drops a lot of liberal ski resort counties and adds strongly blue Fort Collins instead, which might weaken his district slightly but still keeps him safe.
CO-05
Incumbent: Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs)
Old Vote: Obama 40 McCain 59
Average: Dem 33 Rep 67
Description: Lamborn lives here, and most of his Colorado Springs base (aside from a section that was put into CO-06) is here too. But Mike Coffman is looking for a new district to run in, and territory in Douglas and Arapahoe counties that he currently represents has been put into this district. Sniff sniff...what's that? Ah, but of course, fresh-baked primary with a hint of cinnamon.
CO-06
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote (CO-03): Obama 47 McCain 50
Average: Dem 53 Rep 47
Description: I'm going to count this as Scott Tipton's old district even though his home has been drawn into the new 7th. I'm not sure he'd want to run here though. I'm counting it as a swing district, but it's probably D+4 or 5, I'd estimate. Tipton only won by four points in a Republican wave year in an R+5 district, so I really question whether he'd be okay in a district this blue. He'll probably run for the new CO-07 instead, but then again, so will Cory Gardner. And you know what that means...PRIMARY! :D
Incumbent: Scott Tipton (R-Cortez), Cory Gardner (R-Yuma)
Old Vote (CO-04): Obama 49 McCain 50
Average: Dem 33 Rep 67
Description: It's the battle of the slopes! Assuming Tipton runs here, we'll have a candidate who represents the Western Slope face off against a candidate who represents the Eastern Slope/Front Range (plus the Eastern Plains). Democrats need not apply in this dark-red district, so forget about winning here and just grab the popcorn--nothing more fun than watching two Republicans tear each other down.