The individual members of the Washington State Redistricting Commission came out with their redistricting proposals yesterday. As most of you have already read, the commission has 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. They only published PDFs, but I have created Dave's Redistricting maps for each of them. You can download the DRF for them and load them into DRA (via File/Open) and play with them yourself.
Dean Foster's
Tim Ceis's
Slade Gorton's
Tom Huff's
Also, I've put an spreadsheet up there that is a composite of the CD CSVs for each proposal (they are output from DRA, so you could do this yourself if you can't read an .xlsx). The composite shows the actuals that went into these tables for all 4 proposals.
Because DRA has only voting districts (and thus cannot split voting districts into census blocks), I can't represent the exact map in the presence of splits. Except for Tim Ceis's these DRFs are very close approximations. Ceis split a lot more blocks, so it's not quite as precise, but I think is easily close enough to give us a good sense of the political implications of the maps.
Below the fold are tables that show, for the existing 9 districts and for each of the proposals, what the demographics and election data look like. The election data is only 1 race: the 2010 Senate race between Patty Murray (D) and Dino Rossi (R). Murray won with 52.4% of the vote.
Enjoy.
Here are the current 9 districts. The 1st, 2nd, 6th, 7th and 9th CDs are currently held by Democrats, and all of those went for Murray. The other 4 all went for Rossi, as you can see. Also note that 2 districts, 2nd and 8th, were very close; in both of those congressional races have been very close in recent years.
District |
Total Pop |
Murray (D) 2010 |
Rossi (R) 2010 |
White |
Black |
Hisp |
Asian |
Native |
Other |
1 |
740104 |
56.2% |
43.8% |
72.7% |
2.6% |
7.6% |
12.3% |
0.7% |
4.2% |
2 |
760100 |
50.5% |
49.5% |
80.2% |
1.3% |
9.6% |
3.8% |
1.8% |
3.3% |
3 |
779348 |
47.5% |
52.5% |
83.1% |
1.5% |
7.4% |
3.8% |
0.9% |
3.3% |
4 |
773715 |
35.6% |
64.4% |
60.3% |
0.8% |
33.8% |
1.5% |
1.7% |
1.9% |
5 |
724303 |
41.4% |
58.6% |
84.6% |
1.4% |
6.4% |
2.4% |
2.2% |
3.0% |
6 |
709555 |
53.0% |
47.0% |
73.3% |
5.3% |
8.5% |
5.8% |
2.1% |
5.2% |
7 |
702888 |
81.0% |
19.0% |
63.8% |
8.2% |
8.0% |
14.7% |
0.7% |
4.6% |
8 |
812406 |
49.2% |
50.8% |
71.2% |
2.9% |
7.2% |
13.8% |
0.7% |
4.1% |
9 |
722107 |
52.8% |
47.2% |
63.0% |
7.5% |
12.0% |
11.0% |
1.1% |
5.3% |
Now the proposals. Since we have a bipartisan commission, I view a fair compromise as maintaining the status quo (in terms of partisan leaning) for the existing 9 seats and introducing an even 10th seat. So, are any of these fair in that sense? Let's see. The 2nd and 8th are keys, since each is currently almost even. In all cases the 3rd, 4th and 5th are solid R. Usually the 1st and 7th are solid D, with the 6th and 9th Lean D.
1) Dean Foster (D). This looks pretty fair to me. The 2nd (D) is strengthened a bit, but the 8th (R) is strengthened much more. But then the 10th is lean D.
District |
Total Pop |
Murray (D) 2010 |
Rossi (R) 2010 |
White |
Black |
Hisp |
Asian |
Native |
Other |
1 |
673009 |
55.9% |
44.1% |
72.0% |
2.2% |
6.7% |
14.6% |
0.5% |
4.0% |
2 |
672,742 |
52.0% |
48.0% |
77.6% |
1.7% |
10.2% |
5.3% |
1.8% |
3.4% |
3 |
672,176 |
44.4% |
55.6% |
83.2% |
1.4% |
7.6% |
3.5% |
1.0% |
3.3% |
4 |
672,359 |
35.7% |
64.3% |
58.7% |
1.0% |
34.9% |
1.6% |
1.8% |
1.9% |
5 |
672,693 |
41.6% |
58.4% |
84.8% |
1.3% |
6.0% |
2.4% |
2.3% |
3.1% |
6 |
673,084 |
53.9% |
46.1% |
72.7% |
5.5% |
8.4% |
6.5% |
1.4% |
5.5% |
7 |
671,540 |
81.1% |
18.9% |
65.4% |
7.6% |
7.7% |
14.1% |
0.7% |
4.5% |
8 |
672,237 |
43.5% |
56.5% |
79.6% |
1.4% |
10.9% |
3.7% |
1.2% |
3.2% |
9 |
672,369 |
56.4% |
43.6% |
55.4% |
8.1% |
11.9% |
19.2% |
0.6% |
4.7% |
10 |
672,331 |
51.3% |
48.7% |
75.8% |
3.8% |
8.0% |
5.7% |
1.9% |
4.9% |
2) Tim Ceis (D). This is a little better for Dems. The 2nd (D) and 8th (R) are both strengthened a similar amount. The 9th (D) is also nicely strengthened and the new 10th is a likely D.
District |
Total Pop |
Murray (D) 2010 |
Rossi (R) 2010 |
White |
Black |
Hisp |
Asian |
Native |
Other |
1 |
672,594 |
54.6% |
45.4% |
70.4% |
2.0% |
6.9% |
16.4% |
0.4% |
3.9% |
2 |
673,257 |
51.8% |
48.2% |
78.1% |
1.6% |
10.1% |
5.0% |
1.9% |
3.4% |
3 |
672,886 |
44.4% |
55.6% |
83.3% |
1.5% |
7.6% |
3.5% |
0.9% |
3.3% |
4 |
672,171 |
37.0% |
63.0% |
60.9% |
1.0% |
32.2% |
2.0% |
1.8% |
2.0% |
5 |
671,761 |
40.7% |
59.3% |
82.7% |
1.3% |
8.6% |
2.0% |
2.4% |
3.0% |
6 |
672,847 |
53.0% |
47.0% |
80.0% |
3.2% |
6.4% |
4.0% |
2.1% |
4.5% |
7 |
672,598 |
77.7% |
22.3% |
71.8% |
5.2% |
6.7% |
11.2% |
0.7% |
4.4% |
8 |
671,661 |
42.8% |
52.2% |
80.2% |
1.5% |
10.6% |
3.4% |
1.1% |
3.3% |
9 |
672,065 |
60.8% |
39.2% |
49.6% |
10.9% |
13.2% |
20.7% |
0.7% |
4.9% |
10 |
672,700 |
53.7% |
46.3% |
68.3% |
6.1% |
10.1% |
8.4% |
1.3% |
5.8% |
3) Slade Gorton (R). This would be a big win for Republicans. Both the 2nd (D) and 8th (R) are strengthened a similar amount, but the new 10th would be a Likely R.
District |
Total Pop |
Murray (D) 2010 |
Rossi (R) 2010 |
White |
Black |
Hisp |
Asian |
Native |
Other |
1 |
672,506 |
64.8% |
35.2% |
49.0% |
10.9% |
12.4% |
22.4% |
0.6% |
4.6% |
2 |
671,907 |
53.0% |
47.0% |
72.8% |
2.1% |
8.7% |
11.4% |
1.0% |
4.0% |
3 |
671,984 |
44.4% |
55.6% |
83.3% |
1.4% |
7.5% |
3.5% |
0.9% |
3.3% |
4 |
671,991 |
35.5% |
64.5% |
58.9% |
0.9% |
34.8% |
1.6% |
1.8% |
1.9% |
5 |
672,569 |
41.8% |
58.2% |
85.7% |
1.4% |
5.5% |
2.5% |
1.7% |
3.1% |
6 |
672,410 |
52.6% |
47.4% |
79.3% |
3.3% |
6.6% |
4.0% |
2.1% |
4.6% |
7 |
672,545 |
76.6% |
23.4% |
74.1% |
4.0% |
6.2% |
10.7% |
0.6% |
4.4% |
8 |
673,070 |
46.7% |
53.3% |
77.6% |
2.4% |
7.0% |
8.0% |
1.0% |
4.1% |
9 |
672,593 |
54.3% |
45.7% |
65.5% |
6.8% |
10.9% |
9.7% |
1.2% |
5.8% |
10 |
672,965 |
47.4% |
52.6% |
79.0% |
0.8% |
12.8% |
2.5% |
2.1% |
2.8% |
4) Tom Huff (R). This would also be a big win for Republicans. The 2nd (D) and 8th (R) would both be strengthened, the 2nd even more so. But the 9th (D) would be weakened and the 1st (D) would flip to be a Likely R, while the 10th would be Likely D. That would give Republicans 5 seats, with a chance at 6. So this is the worst for Democrats.
District |
Total Pop |
Murray (D) 2010 |
Rossi (R) 2010 |
White |
Black |
Hisp |
Asian |
Native |
Other |
1 |
672,768 |
46.5% |
53.5% |
78.8% |
1.0% |
8.9% |
7.0% |
0.9% |
3.3% |
2 |
671,531 |
56.8% |
43.2% |
74.5% |
2.5% |
8.7% |
8.9% |
1.6% |
3.9% |
3 |
671,925 |
44.6% |
55.4% |
83.2% |
1.4% |
7.8% |
3.4% |
1.0% |
3.2% |
4 |
672,198 |
35.0% |
65.0% |
57.3% |
0.9% |
36.0% |
1.5% |
2.4% |
1.9% |
5 |
672,695 |
41.8% |
58.2% |
85.6% |
1.5% |
5.6% |
2.5% |
1.7% |
3.1% |
6 |
672,105 |
53.5% |
46.5% |
80.4% |
2.1% |
6.6% |
4.6% |
2.1% |
4.3% |
7 |
672,764 |
76.5% |
23.5% |
74.3% |
3.9% |
6.5% |
10.3% |
0.6% |
4.4% |
8 |
672,476 |
47.1% |
52.9% |
74.4% |
1.7% |
9.0% |
10.7% |
0.7% |
3.5% |
9 |
673,033 |
51.5% |
48.5% |
68.0% |
7.3% |
9.7% |
7.7% |
1.3% |
6.1% |
10 |
673,045 |
53.0% |
37.0% |
48.8% |
11.9% |
13.6% |
19.9% |
0.9% |
5.0% |
In Summary, Foster's is the most fair and leans Democratic. Huff's is the worst for Democrats. Ceis's would be the best for Democrats.
And who would run where in each of these? That's an exercise left to the reader....