First up is CA-35, which now looks as if it could have three Democrats vying to get to the top two. Joe Baca chose the safer option and is now up against Gloria Negrete-McLeod and possibly Norma Torres. The map tells it all.
This race would clearly be all about Baca vs. Negrete-McLeod, as the split would leave Norma Torres only taking Pomona. Negrete-McLeod would take Chino and some of Ontario, while Baca would dominate in Fontana and Rialto. I believe that Negrete-McLeod would perform better with moderates and Republicans, as her state senate district includes a few areas like that. The model I'm using shows Negrete-McLeod falling short a few thousand votes, which means that she'd have to make some inroads into Baca's base in Fontana and Rialto. The good news for her is that half of Fontana and Rialto are in another district, so that cuts Baca's strength a bit. Running against two women may cause Baca's alleged comments about Loretta Sanchez and his problems with female members to be brought up http://articles.latimes.com/...
Negrete-McLeod defeated one of Baca's son's in the Dem primary for state senate in 2006. Baca's run in CA-35 may be him deferring to one of his sons to run in CA-31. That said, it's sure to be a very ugly general election, as it will come down to whose base will dominate. Much of the Hispanic political establishment is made up of women officeholders, so Baca might have trouble getting that critical backing. Negrete-McLeod's strategy will be to win this on crossover support.
Next is CA-44, which is a little more tricky to predict, but I'd wager that Laura Richardson does not make the top two.
Janice Hahn would win the Los Angeles proper areas, which she has represented. Isadore Hall would dominate in Compton and Richardson would probably win the Long Beach portion. South Gate and Lynwood will be the deciding areas, as it will come down to who connects better with voters here. It really is anyone's game as far as Hahn and Hall go, as both will have to introduce themselves to lots of voters they haven't represented in any offices that they've held.
Hahn will make the top two, so the general election is where the marquee one and it could get divisive. Hahn's family has traditionally had good connections with the Black community, but coming up against Hall, a rising star, tradition may not get her too far. The establishment may not want to get involved for the reasons I just mentioned, both of these candidates have positives and that makes choosing a side very difficult. Unlike Negrete-McLeod, Hahn can't rely on crossover votes to win, because Hall could pull them just as much as she could.