Are VA voters less welcoming of Dems than before?
During a point in time when the president's numbers have been flagging elsewhere, it had seemed as if a key cog in the Obama '08 coalition had held steady. Virginia, which had gone Democratic for the first time in over four decades, was still giving narrow polling leads for Obama over the myriad of GOP opponents he might face in 2012, a key state given its 13 electoral votes.
If a new poll out on Monday from Roanoke College is to be believed, however, the president's fortunes in the Commonwealth might be flagging somewhat.
Roanoke College. 9/6-17. Likely voters. MoE 4.0% (no trendlines):
Barack Obama (D): 33
Generic Republican: 41
Barack Obama (D): 37
Mitt Romney (R): 45
Barack Obama (D): 40
Rick Perry (R): 42
Barack Obama (D): 46
Michele Bachmann (R): 35
Barack Obama (D): 43
Ron Paul (R): 33
Barack Obama (D): 50
Sarah Palin (R): 31
In past cycles, Roanoke has not been terribly prolific, only offering a few polls per cycle. Their numbers, however, have not had a discernible lean in the past. While a tad pessimistic, the partisan and ideological breakdown of their sample here was not way out of whack. For example, the partisan sample here was R 32/D 29, which is not as rosy as 2008 (when it was D+6) but not as quite as pessimistic as 2009 (which was R+4).
The president's job approval in Virginia has taken a bit of a beating, now coming to a rest at an anemic 39/54 split.
In the highly anticipated clash of the titans for the open Senate seat, the Roanoke poll found that if the president's current political woes are having a drag effect downballot, it is a pretty muted one. As with virtually every Virginia poll taken this cycle, the margin between former GOP Sen. George Allen and former Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine is still a coin flip (trendlines here from a Senate-only poll in April). Indeed, if we are doing an apples-to-apples with this particular polling outfit, Tim Kaine is in a markedly better position now than he was in the Spring:
George Allen (R): 42 (45)
Tim Kaine (D): 39 (32)
Kaine dominates among moderates and liberals, but Allen destroys Kaine among conservatives, which make up nearly 40% of the electorate, according to the poll.
In the final analysis, the key to Virginia for Kaine and Obama both is to change the makeup of the electorate. Democrats made 39% of the 2008 electorate, according to exit polls. They made up just 29% of the electorate, according to the Roanoke poll. If they can turn out their base, both Obama and Kaine look like much better bets for election, given their relative strength among moderate voters.