I felt ready for a challenge, so I figured I might as well try redistricting Georgia. And my goodness, was this a challenge! I tried hard to hold together communities of interest wherever possible, but it was difficult to do this all the time while also respecting the VRA, respecting municipal boundaries, and maintaining population equity... Especially as I drew closer to "The ATL".
But in the end, I managed to create four African-American majority VRA districts while also creating a fifth minority-majority district that will be Georgia's new "Fair Fight District". I also managed to give John Barrow a district he should like (even if it goes nowhere near Athens).
Want to see some more? Well, what are you waiting for? Don't be tardy for the party!
South Georgia
GA-01 (Royal Blue):
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59.7%
McCain (R) 39.7%
Average
(D) 60.3%
(R) 39.7%
GA-02 (Forest Green):
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 62.8%
Obama (D) 36.6%
Average
(R) 58.8%
(D) 41.2%
GA-03 (Dark Purple):
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54.2%
McCain (R) 45.2%
Average
(D) 53.5%
(R) 46.5%
GA-04 (Red)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 61.2%
Obama (D) 38.1%
Average
(R) 57.3%
(D) 42.7%
GA-06 (Teal)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 65.8%
Obama (D) 33.2%
Average
(R) 64.6%
(D) 35.4%
Sanford Bishop and John Barrow can now breathe sighs of relief. Under this map, both can survive. And in fact, Bishop actually benefits from the changes I made! Frankly, I'll be surprised if no one sues to make this district African-American majority. Without any sort of extreme gerrymandering (only splitting counties for protection of African-American communities of interest and population equity), I made it past the 50% African-American VAP hurdle to make it eligible for VRA protection (to 50.1% to be exact). And while Barrow's district isn't VRA protected, his new GA-03 is only barely white majority VAP and extends pretty cleanly along Georgia's Southeast Corridor from Savannah to Augusta.
Of course, there is a price to pay for Bishop's and Barrow's good luck... And that's the obliteration of whatever hopes there were of Jim Marshall making any sort of comeback. The old GA-08 has been dismantled, and instead Austin Scott will have to choose either the new GA-02 or new GA-04 to run in... (Funny enough, he's been placed into the new GA-01 with Sanford Bishop!) And try not to step on Jack Kingston's toes! Since Chatham County (Savannah) is now entirely in GA-03, Kingston will probably prefer GA-02 or GA-04 over a match against Barrow in the new GA-03 that he probably can't win. (Barrow may still be vulnerable, but I doubt Kingston is the one who can really scare him.)
Lynn Westmoreland, on the other hand, can rest easy. His home turf in Coweta County has been placed in the new GA-06, an "amazingly diverse" district that extends from the lily white Columbus suburbs to the lily white Atlanta exurbs.
Athens, Appalachia, & a Whole Lot of Atlanta Exurbs!
GA-05 (Gold)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 63.5%
Obama (D) 35.4%
Average
(R) 61.9%
(D) 38.1%
GA-09 (Cyan)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 74.7%
Obama (D) 24.0%
Average
(R) 71.8%
(D) 28.2%
GA-08 (Light Salmon)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 70.6%
Obama (D) 28.0%
Average
(R) 67.9%
(D) 32.1%
GA-07 (Silver)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 65.9%
Obama (D) 32.8%
Average
(R) 65.4%
(D) 34.6%
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but Democrats are pretty much hopeless here. The demographics of Appalachia are swinging badly against us, and that clearly shows in the partisan numbers in these districts. GA-09 is over 80% white, GA-08 is nearing 80% white, and both districts are quite old and poor... But because "TEH CUL'CHUR WARZZZ!!!" take center stage here (think "god, guns, and gays"), Republicans clearly dominate in "Teabagger's Heaven". Tom Graves should be quite happy in the new GA-08, and the new GA-09 happens to be an open seat that quite a few Northeast Georgia Republicans can salivate over.
And even though GA-05 and GA-07 are not quite as white and quintessentially Appalachian as GA-08 and GA-09, Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey aren't in any sort of trouble in their respective new districts. Broun's GA-05 may have Athens, but it gets easily drowned out by the rest of GOP dominant Eastern Georgia (which is actually NOT good news for Rob Woodall, as you'll later see!). And GA-07 may extend into the closer ATL suburbs in Cobb and Douglas Counties, but the GOP strength in the western ATL exurbs keep Gingrey very safe and sound there.
And Now for the ATL!
Ah, Atlanta. For all you Democrats who were saddened by the last batch of districts, this group will make you much, much happier. Not only are your favorite progressives quite safe and secure, but a new Gwinnett-DeKalb district is created that actually endangers one of Georgia's incumbent Republicans! You just have to see this.
GA-10 (Hot Pink)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 65.1%
Obama (D) 33.9%
Average
(R) 67.6%
(D) 32.4%
GA-11 (Chartreuse)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50.7%
McCain (R) 48.3%
Average
(R) 52.3%
(D) 47.7%
GA-12 (Navy Blue)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 78.7%
McCain (R) 20.5%
Average
(D) 75.5%
(R) 24.5%
GA-13 (Baby Blue)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 72.5%
McCain (R) 26.6%
Average
(D) 69.7%
(R) 30.3%
GA-14 (Spring Green)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 73.2%
McCain (R) 26.0%
Average
(D) 70.4%
(R) 29.6%
Notice something different here? Unlike the other regions of Georgia, I could only squeeze out one Republican stronghold here. Tom Price really lucks out as his hometown of Roswell barely makes it into the new GA-10 "suburban ring" districts that stretches from the wealthy white hamlets of Cobb County, through the wealthy white towns of North Fulton County, to the wealthy white villages of South Forsyth and North Gwinnett Counties.
His "poor little rich" colleague Rob Woodall, however, doesn't. You see, Gwinnett County has been rapidly growing... But it hasn't been rapidly growing in a way that helps Republicans. It's becoming increasingly diverse, and as a result the new GA-11 is a district that President Obama managed to win as communities like Lawrenceville, Duluth, and Tucker in DeKalb County have become less exclusively white. (This district is only 43.0% white VAP.) Woodall probably can't win the general election here, so Georgia Republicans will either have to find someone more moderate to run here or risk losing this district sooner rather than later.
At 53.8% African-American VAP AND probably still making the list of "Gayest Districts in America", progressive icon John Lewis definitely has nothing to worry about in the new GA-12. His home base of Atlanta still stands strong here, and the addition of wealthier, whiter, and more GOP leaning Sandy Springs really does nothing to change the partisan dynamics here, as more Democratic and African-American heavy DeKalb County suburbs were also added.
At 53.5% African-American VAP, GA-13 has finally become an official VRA protected district. Maybe David Scott's scandals will still cause him heartburn in the primary in this district, but Democrats will still easily hold this district regardless.
And at 52.9% African-American VAP, the new GA-14 should still be a nice cakewalk for Hank Johnson. Even though it goes beyond the old GA-04 in extending all the way to Henry and Newton Counties, it's still heavily Democratic and very accommodating for a strong progressive like Johnson. He'll definitely fly above. ;-)
So there you have it. And in case you weren't keeping close score, here's the final partisan breakdown of my proposed Georgia map.
Safe Republican: GA-02, GA-04, GA-05, GA-06, GA-07, GA-08, GA-09, GA-10
Leans Republican: None
Tossup: GA-11
Leans Democratic: GA-03
Safe Democratic: GA-01, GA-12, GA-13, GA-14
As you can see, Republicans overall still have the upper hand statewide. But with the creation of a more ATL centric GA-11 and a slender GA-03 that flows from Augusta to Savannah, Democrats still have opportunities throughout the state. A 10R-4D delegation is really the best Georgia Republicans can hope for. But under this map, 8R-6D is far more realistic and probable.