Indiana redistricting has long been a done deal. Republicans controlled redistricting and used it to screw over Joe Donnelly, the last congressional Democrat holding down an R+ seat in Indiana. Of course, because this is Daily Kos Elections and we're nerds, it would be fun to speculate what kind of maps the Democrats would have drawn if they had been in power. The 2001-2011 map was drawn by Democrats, but it was arguably inefficient, as it wasted such valuable sources of votes as Fort Wayne and West Lafayette. Hence, I have decided to give a stab at drawing my own map. I tried to create three districts that would elect liberal Democrats and another where a moderate Democrat would have a strong advantage.
More over the flip.
Although Indiana voted for Obama, it is by no means a liberal or Democratic state. It would be nice to draw 5 or more districts where Democrats have the advantage, but that's just not possible without spreading votes out too thin. I felt that four districts was the maximum number to fully take advantage of the various sources of Democratic strength throughout Indiana. I was able to create three districts with a D+ PVI (compared to only two currently) and a fourth district where a Brad Ellsworth or Baron Hill type Democrat could easily win. Unfortunately, with the possible exception of my 9th district, none of the other five districts will ever elect a Democrat. It just won't happen. Too many areas that vote straight R.
With that said, let's get to the maps!
First, here's the whole state:
IN-01
Incumbent: Pete Visclosky (D-Merrillville)
Old Vote: Obama 62 McCain 37
New Vote: Obama 61 McCain 38
Description: This district becomes a tick more Republican as Visclosky absorbs the rest of Porter County and a red, rural slice of LaPorte County. Still, this is a safe district for a liberal Democrat.
IN-02
Incumbent: Joe Donnelly (D-Granger)
Old Vote: Obama 54 McCain 45
New Vote: Obama 57 McCain 42
Description: When the Republicans made Joe Donnelly's district more Republican, he decided to run for Senate rather than stand for re-election in a redder district. If the district had looked like this, though, he might have reconsidered. This district sheds quite a few Republican-leaning rural areas that nearly sank Donnelly against Jackie Walorski last year. Additionally, it gains deep-blue Lafayette/West Lafayette, home to Purdue University, as well as Goshen in Elkhart County. While it backs out of Porter County, it retains South Bend, Logansport, Elkhart, and Kokomo. A liberal Democrat could win this district the vast majority of the time.
IN-03
Incumbent: Marlin Stutzman (R-Howe)
Old Vote: Obama 43 McCain 56
New Vote: Obama 38 McCain 61
Description: The old IN-03 was a district where Democrats could get oh so close in the right conditions, but never make it over the hump. This new district is one where they won't even get their hopes up. Steuben County has a few small blue areas, but losing most of Fort Wayne means that there is no Democratic base for a challenger to work with. Safe R.
IN-04
Incumbent: Todd Rokita (R-Indianapolis)
Old Vote: Obama 43 McCain 56
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 60
Description: Todd Rokita doesn't actually live here, but I can't find anything on his residence more specific than "west side of Indianapolis," so I just put him here since I think he'd run here. By dropping most of Tippecanoe County and gaining more straight R-voting Indy suburbs, Rokita becomes even safer.
IN-05
Incumbent: Dan Burton (R-Indianapolis)
Old Vote: Obama 40 McCain 59
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 60
Description: Same deal with Burton's residence. He doesn't live here and neither does his primary opponent John McGoff, but both men will probably run here. Plenty of this territory is new to Burton, but that's ok because he'd be strongly likely to lose the primary anyway. Safe R in the general, of course.
IN-06
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote: Obama 46 McCain 53
New Vote: Obama 57 McCain 42
Description: This gerrymandered district cobbles together Democrats from Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Anderson, Muncie, and some smaller towns. Fortunately for the Republicans, since Mike Pence is retiring anyway, this district wouldn't screw over any of their incumbents.
IN-07
Incumbent: Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis)
Old Vote: Obama 71 McCain 28
New Vote: Obama 65 McCain 34
Description: Rather than being a blob in the middle of Marion County, this district becomes a bit more rectangular. It takes up all of Marion County except for the northern part, which helps make IN-06 bluer.
IN-08
Incumbent: Larry Bucshon (R-Newburgh), Todd Young (R-Bloomington)
Old Vote: Obama 47 McCain 51
New Vote: Obama 53 McCain 46
Description: This district probably has a slight R+ PVI because of how drastically Obama overperformed in most of Indiana. Still, it also has some conservadems who won't vote for Obama but might vote for a Brad Ellsworth-style Democrat. Democrats managed to hold both the current IN-08 and IN-09 for a bit, and this district is even bluer, as it takes in Vincennes, Terre Haute, Evansville, and Bloomington. Todd Young will probably move to the 9th to avoid a primary fight and a bluer district, but Bucshon doesn't represent enough of the 9th to feasibly run here, so he's stuck digging in his heels and fighting (and probably losing).
IN-09
Incumbent: Mike Pence (R-Columbus)
Old Vote: Obama 49 McCain 50
New Vote: Obama 42 McCain 57
Description: Mike Pence is running for governor and Todd Young will probably run here, so really, Young is the incumbent. This district does contain some Ohio River counties that can vote Democratic but it's way redder than the current IN-08 and IN-09. Democrats can probably forget about this one. Apologies to SouthernINDem, hoosierdem, and Bob Bobson for doing this to them.