Kossites, I need your help figuring out what’s going on over at Gallup. Their polling has become erratic and is most often the outlier against others in the field.
I have three issues with a story they published yesterday and I need you to walk me back from the ledge because I’m a recovering poll addict who sometimes trip over a blip when there’s no there, there. You see, they had a poll addict like me “at this hello:” Gallup title: February 6, 2012.
“Where the U.S. Election Stands Now”
Oh boy, I was sucked right in—salivating over some fresh poll numbers and then bam:
PROBLEM #1-- Gallup reported:
“U.S. President Barack Obama beats several of his possible Republican opponents in recent Gallup general election trial heats, but he is tied with GOP front-runner Mitt Romney, suggesting he could be facing a competitive race this fall.”
Okay, so they are the outlier who unlike
ABC, NBC, PPP and Raz who believes the Pres is up 5-7, Gallup believes the race is tied.
The problem is that they don’t give me numbers—they don’t give me numbers...people (shaking uncontrollably now) ---oh, oh, phew-- here’s a link—okay going to another page—auugggh, they duped me. That’s the same “OLD” poll from Jan 24-28.
So what’s going on here—this is Gallup!! These people poll every day except:
PROBLEM #2--On yesterday Gallup said:
“Editorial note: Gallup will not publish new Gallup Daily tracking results on Sunday, Feb. 5- Monday, Feb. 6. The next update will be Tuesday, Feb. 7.”
Okay, I get that. Unemployment went down, so a company that tracks daily polls might want to capture any movements. So they didn’t want to poll that day but…in the same article they
reported:
“Additionally, although Gallup did not conduct Daily tracking interviews Feb. 3-4, a separate Gallup poll conducted Feb. 2-5 found 50% of Americans approving of Obama, suggesting the president may have received an approval bounce after Friday's jobs report.”
What, huh wait!!! So Obama is at 50% over at Raz-- I mean Gallup and that doesn't warrant a headline? At a polling site? Seriously?
So they did poll but maybe for the USAToday and maybe that story is somewhere else under a headline—you know-maybe something like: “Obama over 50% for the First Time in a Year.” Or, maybe they’re just waiting for a big story in USAToday and they didn’t want anyone to know. At any rate, this is weird.
I checked the USAToday yesterday and today and got crickets people on a poll that was done on the 5th. I'm sure it will eventually turn up.
The bottom line is that Gallup found Obama at 50% and buried that information on the bottom of some other pointless story? Why?
PROBLEM #3: Gallup also said:
“This historical pattern suggests that Obama would need to see his job approval rating climb to 50% to be in a comfortable position for re-election."
Um, they just (sorta) reported he’s at 50% people!!! What more must he do? Oh, he must be at 50% by this March. But again, the title says, “Where the U.S. Election Stands Now. Aaaauughhh!!!!
Okay, I quit!! Gallup’s entire article has me more twisted up than a pretzel. They could have scrapped all of their words with this one truth:
Headline: Obama at 50%
Story:
According to Gallup’s historical trends, if the election was held today, Obama’s 50% approval indicates he would be favored to win re-election.
The freakin' end of story!!
I expect to see Obama @ 44% in their daily tracking poll—then we’ll see the headline:
“Obama Bounce Over.”
Can someone please tell me what’s going on at Gallup?