Daily Kos Elections House race ratings (2012)

Daily Kos Staff

Saturday May 12, 2012 · 1:30 PM PDT

2012/05/12 · 13:30

Our ratings for competitive races that feature two members of the same party facing off in November are below (a further explanation of these contests can be found here). Incumbents are designated with an "(i)":

Last updated: Nov. 6, 2012 at 5:30 PM ET

A note on the color scheme: Blue and red seats are held by Democrats (D) and Republicans (R) respectively. Purple seats feature matchups between a Democratic incumbent and a Republican incumbent (S, for "split"). Green seats are new seats (N) created by decennial reapportionment pursuant to the census and are controlled by neither party.

Republicans currently control 240 of 435 seats in the House, Democrats 190. Five seats are vacant. 218 seats are needed for control of the chamber, meaning Democrats need a net gain of 28 seats to retake the House. All seats not listed on this chart are considered "Safe" for the party which currently controls them.

Here's how we define our ratings categories:

Safe: Barring unforeseeable developments, one party is certain to win.
Race to Watch: A foreseeable but as-yet unrealized development has the chance to make an otherwise "Safe" race potentially competitive, or an incumbent faces a potentially competitive primary.

Likely: One party has a strong advantage and is likely to win, though the race has the potential to become more competitive.

Lean: One party has an identifiable advantage, but an upset victory is possible for the other party.

Tossup: Both (or all) parties have a strong (though not necessarily perfectly equal) chance of winning.

Daily Kos Elections House race ratings (2012)

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