A truly unique but most welcome interpretation of the results, from Stony Brook University poitical science professor Helmut Northpoth, currently at pollster.com
Excerpts from and comments on the article below.
Norpoth gives background on the means by which he determines that not only will Obama win reelection but will do so "by a comfortable margin":
This forecast comes from a statistical model of presidential elections (The PRIMARY MODEL) that uses primary performance as a major predictor of the presidential vote in the general election. In addition, the model relies on a cycle in presidential elections and adjusts for the partisan shift during the New Deal era. The model covers elections as far back as 1912, when presidential primaries were first used in large numbers. Since 1952, however, only the New Hampshire Primary is included.
I understand that people may feel this methodology is not totally reliable, and that other methodologies that have seemed certain in the past have only proved to have been so for as long as they held up. But Norpoth does have some weight when he asserts the importance of a primary opponent to the incumbent as an indicator of the eventual election result:
Any time a candidate of the party that controls the White House has gone unchallenged for renomination, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of that candidate's victory in the November election. This goes back as far as 1912, when the incumbent president William Howard Taft first lost the primary battle and then the general election. Primary challenges to Truman (1952), Johnson (1968), Ford (1976), Carter (1980) and Bush (1992) augured poorly for them or their party in the general election.
With the disclaimer that The Primary Model has had "slight modifications" since its inception, Norpoth claims it has successfully picked the winner every presidential election since 1996. That is not a record of great longevity but 4 for 4 is still impressive, especially since two of those four elections were decided by less than 3%.
So what does The Primary Model forecast for this year?
The Primary Model allows for forecasts that pit Obama against each of the Republican contenders. The better their showing in the New Hampshire Primary, the stronger their showing against Obama in November. In the event that Mitt Romney, the winner of the Republican Primary in New Hampshire, goes on to be the party's nominee, Obama would defeat him by 53.2 to 46.8 percent of the two-party vote. In a race against Ron Paul, the second-place Republican finisher in New Hampshire, the Obama vote would go up to 56.9 percent. It would level off at 57.1 percent against Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum or any other Republican.
I think anyone of us would gladly take that!