With Republicans right on the doorstep of the South Carolina primary, the big question in the Palmetto State seems to be evolving. A few days ago, it was: is this the state where the GOP field finally trips up Mitt Romney on what, nominally, should be less friendly turf?
Now, the question has become: can Mitt Romney win South Carolina by a wide enough margin to render the rest of the primary schedule essentially moot?
The cast of characters chasing Romney seem to understand this, which is why he took some serious incoming last night from the peanut gallery during the debates. It is far too soon to see if Gingrich, Santorum, and the gang drew legitimate blood last night. For now, in the Republican primary, Mitt Romney looks essentially unbeatable.
Consider Tuesday's data, which does virtually nothing to counter the "Romney inevitability meme":
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Romney 36, Gingrich 16, Paul 16, Santorum 13, Perry 9
NATIONAL (Gallup): Romney 34, Gingrich 15, Santorum 15, Paul 12, Perry 6
FLORIDA (Voter Survey Service): Romney 46, Gingrich 20, Santorum 12, Paul 9, Perry 3
SOUTH CAROLINA (Monmouth): Romney 33, Gingrich 22, Santorum 14, Paul 12, Perry 6, Huntsman 4
SOUTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney 35, Gingrich 21, Paul 16, Santorum 16, Perry 5
TEXAS (PPP): Romney 24, Gingrich 23, Perry 18, Santorum 15, Paul 12
On the general election front, there is a fairly considerable difference in how today's two main general election pollsters perceive the race: with ABC/WaPo putting a gulf between Romney and the non-Romneys, while PPP puts them all in a much tighter band.
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Romney d. Obama (48-46); Obama d. Paul (49-42); Obama d. Santorum (52-41); Obama d. Gingrich (52-40)
NATIONAL (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-44); Obama d. Paul (47-42); Obama d. Gingrich (49-42); Obama d. Santorum (50-42); Obama d. Perry (51-40)
NATIONAL w/3RD PARTY (PPP): Obama d. Romney and Gary Johnson (47-40-7); Obama d. Romney and Stephen Colbert (41-38-13)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Gingrich (47-38)
A few thoughts about the state of play, in South Carolina and elsewhere, after the jump.
Even while Mitt Romney had another excellent polling day on the GOP side, there were a few cracks apparent in places. The two polls that probably won't get the attention they deserve are the Gallup tracker of the GOP primary, and the PPP national poll.
The Gallup tracker movement today will be largely dismissed, if for no other reason than the fact that the Gallup tracker has had unpredictable movement since its inception six weeks ago. However, today's slight tightening is meaningful if for no other reason than it halts what had been an inexorable movement towards the GOP primary becoming one-sided. And while a lead of 19 percent is only marginally tighter than one of 23 percent, it does change the narrative, if only for a day.
As for the PPP national poll, the issue there is the rising negatives for Mitt Romney, particularly among Independent voters. It leads one to wonder if the additional light being cast upon Romney is not as big a benefit for him as you might think. To put it another way, the more the public is exposed to Mitt Romney, the less they like him.
Of course, PPP is but one pollster, and another poll released today (ABC/WaPo) paints a very different picture. It is beyond dispute, however, that even a truncated GOP primary has unveiled some weaknesses in Mitt Romney's game. And one has to assume that Team Obama is taking notes.
As for South Carolina, it will be exceedingly interesting to see if the game changes at all post-debate. For now, it looks like Mitt Romney is due for a victory, and possibly a sizeable one. One has to imagine that if Romney wins the Palmetto State by double digits, the nomination fight is pretty close to done. Things don't get better for the anti-Romneys after this. Florida is the next contest, and recent polls there look excellent for Romney: unlike any race to this point, he is now polling in the 40s in the Sunshine State. Nevada should be fertile territory for Romney in early February. That leaves two contests at the end of February before Super Tuesday: Arizona and Michigan. Michigan is essentially a home state for Romney, and polls have shown Arizona to be friendly turf, as well.
In other words, it will be early March before we hit a state where Mitt Romney won't be the favorite. Someone needed to outlean him at the finish line in South Carolina to change the meme. Polls show that becoming less and less likely as we skate towards Saturday.