Given what has happened over the last week in this absurdity of the Republican primary, the numbers we see today are wholly predictable, aren't they? At least, as predictable as anything has been in an election cycle where the only certainty has been an incessant uncertainty about the outcome and the vectors that its various candidates have taken.
For the moment, however ... and this is subject to change by lunchtime on Wednesday ... Newt Gingrich is ascendant, and it is plausible to see his path to the nomination. Today's numbers, by and large, make that case:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 29, Gingrich 28, Paul 13, Santorum 11, "Other" 5
FLORIDA (Insider Advantage): Gingrich 34, Romney 26, Paul 13, Santorum 11
FLORIDA (PPP): Gingrich 38, Romney 33, Santorum 13, Paul 10
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Gingrich 41, Romney 32, Santorum 11, Paul 8
On the general election front, the Gingrich surge does not appear to be making him much more "electable", at least according to what will now be a daily tracker of the presidential general election done by Rasmussen. Obama leads both men, but the margins are quite different, according to the House of Ras.
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (45-43); Obama d. Gingrich (48-39)
Some thoughts to kick off Florida primary week after the jump...
There is but one burning question as we peruse today's data: is this Gingrich surge a legitimate phenomenon that can propel him to the nomination, or is this the high water mark for Newtie, an ephemeral bounce that will fade before Florida actually heads to the polls in eight days?
At this point, I'd declare these two alternatives to be equally possible.
The Case for Legitimate Newt-Mentum: There are two reasons to suspect that this is the beginning, rather than the high-water mark, for a Gingrich surge. For one thing, Rick Santorum is sliding back into irrelevance, and rather quickly. As I've said for weeks and weeks, the one path to denying Mitt Romney the nomination would be a consolidation of the anti-Mitt vote in one place. That looks like it might actually be happening. If it does, and the "Mitt ceiling" in the high 20s/low 30s is a legitimate phenomenon, Gingrich can win a lot of contests.
The second reason is that if the Newt surge has taught us one thing, it is that Mitt Romney looks like he has one hell of a glass jaw. He is purely awful at playing defense. When no one was even trying to lay a glove on him, Romney looked great: calm and in control. The last week, however, has been a very, very different story.
The Case for A Fleeting Newt Bounce: There are also two reasons to suspect this is a passing fad. One, and I admit this is a somewhat lame reason, is because they have all been passing fads thus far. It is hard to buy the notion that this time, it's for real. Maybe it is, but we have been teased before. Lots of times.
The second reason is rooted in a bit more evidence. Given his fundraising "prowess" thus far, to say nothing of his campaign organization, it is hard to envision Gingrich cobbling together the kind of a national campaign which he will likely need to win the nomination. It is one thing to hold your own when it is one contest per week (and, thus far, one contest in relatively small environs). Can he handle Super Tuesday? I'm still skeptical.
The race, however, is most clearly on. I, for one, would be absolutely shocked if today isn't the last day (for a while, at least) that Mitt Romney leads the national Gallup tracking polls. Newt has the momentum. What remains to be seen, however, is if he can continue to translate that into actual votes.