Well, after 4 months - a bout with the power of the Lawd, some very QB friendly rules and the quarterbacks that took advantage, and some truly great stories in some places that could use a smile (Cincinnati, San Francisco and, snark be damned, Denver). But now we are at the playoffs - and it's now a matter of winning the games. I can say the Packers were the best team wire to wire- but it hardly matters. The trophy is the goal, full stop. Anyway, we've been doing rankings all year with the final ones last week - rankings which take into account several criteria. However, one of the criteria - adjusted scoring margin - is better suited to make statements on the future. So diving into the rankings detail as a starting point, let's talk about this weekend's setup.
SATURDAY
4:30 Cincinnati Other Paul Browns at Houston Texans
Despite a competitive but clear loss to Baltimore last week, the Bengals find themselves in the playoff derby with a surprisingly good matchup against the 3rd seeded Texans. The scoring margins here aren't particularly helpful. The Bengals were +4.7 and the Texans +9.1. Using a standard home field advantage, this would put the Texans as a 9 point favorite. However, this does not account for the serious injury problems the Texans have been dealing with down the stretch. When a team is going through quarterbacks like they are disposable, and when its top playmaker is battling injuries and the defense is staggering a bit too - I am not sure how much of the +9.1 is sustainable. To wit, when Schaub last played in Week 10, the Texans were at +13. So the trend has been not so good - basically +1.3 over the 5 games missed. If you take THAT number, we are looking at a coin flip game, and that is probably accurate. It is hard not to pick the Texans - one hates picking young teams to win road games in the postseason - but the Bengals have an extremely winnable game here.
8:00 Detroit Lions at New Eauxrleans Saints
The Lions had some upheaval in their running back corps, but so have the Saints and that is the most fungible position on offense - so hard to linger on that much. Moreover the worry is about the Lions losing to Green Bay's JV offense - in a game they could have really used. Obviously this game is a rematch of a not particularly competitive Sunday night game of yore this year, but I'm not lingering on that. Even without a head to head result, the scoring margins are tough harbingers here. The Lions +8.7, the Saints +13.0. This speaks to the Saints being an 8 point favorite here based on body of work considerations - and that seems to be a fair assessment. Unlike the 4:30 game, there is nothing new about the Saints to feel that this is going to be too different.
SUNDAY
1:00 Atlanta Falcons at Northern New Jersey Giants
If this was the music of the mid to late 70s, this is your James Taylor vs Johnny Rotten matchup. In this case, the Falcons are your James Taylor - steady, nice, reliable. It's a good music to put in your background as you wash dishes or do the laundry - there is something soothing about "Fire and Rain" isn't it? But there is also a reason that James Taylor did not precipitate something like Altamont. The Falcons are your Wally Cleaver here.
The Giants on the other hand, crackle. We see Jason Pierre-Paul light up the night like he has the last couple games against the Cowboys - we see the comebacks of Eli Manning, and the drama of their wins over the Jets and Patriots. We also see epic stinkers against inferior teams, and ghastly mistakes. That this team could lose at home to the Seahawks while taking the Packers to the wall and winning at New England, is entirely appropriate - anarchy in the NJ indeed.
Of course, when the dust settles - the actual products left behind ... are qualitatively pretty similar. The Falcons are a +7.3 scoring margin and the Giants +4.1. Considering the Giants are at home, this is effectively a pick em game. The pundits like saying the Giants have played better down the stretch but that is hard to defend by results. You can't unlearn the Redskins game. But last week gives you an idea of the ceiling here, and ceiling has a way of seducing.
4:30 Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Incompletion Jesuses
It's fun to make fun of Steelers fans. First of all, in the National Capital Region, as the DoD likes to say - they crawl all over. Also, there is a lot of the Dallas Cowboys sort of thing there ... in the 70s, they were the team you saw on TV all the time so you became a fan etc etc etc. Of course being compared with the Cowboys in this manner (or many others) tends to drive non-Cowboys fans crazy.
Of course, it is also fun to make fun of Tim Tebow. I certainly in these annals have not spared myself chances. And with his numbers lately, he has given himself chances to be made fun of for reasons entirely football related - yay! Really, what is there to say about this matchup, Denver is 8-8 ... totally average. Yes they deserve to be happy with their season coming off of last season's travesty - and being at home anything can happen. But the scoring margins talk, the Steelers at +10.3, the Broncos at -0.7. We isolate the Tebow Games, the numbers get worse - Denver at least in their Orton phase played opponents with a 17-6 combined record, Tebow's adjusted scoring margin is actually -1.6. So using whatever criteria you want, the Steelers should be a 9 point favorite or so. Denver has the chance to capture some magic for sure - they are in the tournament, and tournaments do as they do. However, it is hard not to envision the Broncos being a bug for the Steelers windshield.
Anyway, what a fun season - and now the pace heats up ...