Why I'm still worried
I've been feeling pretty optimistic about this race the past week or so, but I've crashed today. Why? Take a look at Gallup.
While Obama is a decent 5 points ahead on their 7 day tracking poll (down slightly from the past few days) his approval rating is now back in danger zone territory - 46/46. That's not a healthy approval rating for an incumbent president one month before election. Perhaps it's statistical noise. I sure hope so.
Obama's approval rating in Rasmussen is slightly up. That could be a good thing - OR, as some here have suggested, it could just be dishonest Ras manipulating their sample to set up Romney for a bounce after the debates.
I don't buy the right-wing whining about "skewed polls", but I am hearing some noise about Romney leading with independents. That worries me.
So while I was thinking Obama would likely beat Romney by about 5-6 points last week, I'm now thinking it's will more likely be 3-4 points. Or (shudders) maybe Romney still has a real shot at this.
The next 37 days are going to be excruciating.