So far, folks here have been leaning heavily on the Gallup tracking poll as a sign of strength for our side. But tomorrow, that all changes.
Tomorrow, Gallup changes to its likely voter screen, so we must expect a tightening or even a Romney lead in the Gallup tracking numbers as of tomorrow. Look, I hope no one here was expecting an Obama cakewalk this year. Of course, it would be nice, and we all know that Mitt Romney is an inveterate douchebag. But we have a hell of a lot of work to do if we want to deliver a second term for President Obama.
Here is a link to the report about tomorrow's shift: http://www.pbs.org/...
Now, for some reason, it seems clear in most of the national polls that Republicans are, in fact, more enthusiastic than Democrats about the election. Perhaps that is different in swing states, I'm not sure. And I do realize that the state by state polls are more significant than the national ones. But I remember 2004 all too well, thinking that of course the nation would reject the Republican bullshit, only to witness John Kerry's chances at winning evaporate before my incredulous eyes as the votes were counted on election night.
I just think that some people here are whitewashing the current bad news - as in the Pew Poll - when it's much more important to use these numbers as a call to arms. We are going to need really good turnout on election day.
Now, in 2004, the proportion of voters was Rep 37%/Dem 37% and we lost because Bush got a higher percentage of his base than did Kerry. In 2008, it was Dem 39%/Rep 32% but it's not going to be that wonderful this time around. I do, by the way, view the Pew poll as absurd. No freaking way is it going to be R+3, but even if it were D+1 we could lose. I'm hoping that the Obama turnout machine can make it at least D+2 which should deliver the popular vote and anything above that would be splendid. My personal view is that it will be D+3 or D+4 by election day, but who the hell knows.
In any case, I don't want anyone here to view the upcoming election with rose-colored glasses. We are in for a real fight with the braindead zombies.