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12:10 PM PT: NY-19: After a new Democratic internal showed a two-point race, the NRCC is out with a ten-day-old internal (courtesy OnMessage) which has GOP Rep. Chris Gibson up 47-39 over Democrat Julian Schreibman. That 47% mark doesn't strike me as particularly awesome for Gibson, I've gotta say. As to which poll you should believe, well, the DCCC's had Obama up 7 while this one has him up 3; he won by 8 four years ago. And as it happens, Roll Call's Joshua Miller was able to squeeze out the sample demographics from both sides:
The breakdown of those surveyed in the Republican poll: 36 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 25 percent other. The breakdown of those surveyed in the Democratic poll: 32 percent Democratic; 35 percent Republican; 33 percent other.
So as you can see, the D-Trip's survey was actually a touch more Republican. And here's another little tell that I like a lot: The Dem poll was in the field last week, while the Republican poll was conducted the week before that. That likely means that the GOP didn't intend to publicize those numbers (knowing they weren't so great) and only did so because they felt they had to.
12:22 PM PT: AZ-Sen: Look out! A brand-new DSCC poll from Harstad Research has Democrat Rich Carmona up 47-43 over Republican Jeff Flake, not too different from the 45-43 edge PPP saw for Carmona earlier this month. The polling memo doesn't contain a lot of detail (there are no Obama-Romney numbers, for instance), but it does note that Carmona has a 39-24 favorability rating—considerably better than Flake's underwater 36-38 mark. Unusually, the pollster offers their partisan breakdown: 39 R vs. 30 D, compared with a 36-30 registration advantage for the GOP statewide. I wonder if we're going to start seeing Republican internals here any time soon....
1:14 PM PT: That Maine poll also asked about the state's pro-gay marriage ballot measure, finding 55 percent in support and 39 opposed. Unfortunately, we don't have access to the complete question wording, which I mention because the pollster himself cautioned that "support for gay marriage might be 'inflated' because of the way respondents answered more general questions about their level of support for same-sex marriage." Hmm.
2:04 PM PT (David Jarman): MT-Sen, MT-AL (pdf): PPP has new Montana numbers out, and it's safe to say that their Senate numbers come as a relief, even though they basically stood still, in fairly precarious position: Democratic incumbent Jon Tester leads GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg 45-43, with Libertarian Dan Cox clocking in at 8. Those are the exact same numbers as PPP's poll last month.
On the whole, that's good news for Tester, since this comes after last week's debate, and top of the ticket, Barack Obama has seen some erosion, down to a 52-41 deficit instead of the 50-45 deficit last month, so Tester is holding his own. On the other hand, there are two red flags for Tester: the undecideds, and the Libertarian. The undecideds prefer Romney over Obama 71-8, and Cox voters also prefer Romney 70-6, so it seems like if they decide not to waste their votes, they're likelier to break in Rehberg's direction.
Finally, PPP has numbers in Montana's open, at-large House race, where Republican Steve Daines leads Dem Kim Gillan 43-34 with 10 going to Libertarian Dave Kaiser. Last month, the race was much closer, at 40-37-9, so it seems like the House race (where the players are kind of Generic R and Generic D) is being hurt by Obama's decline while Tester has a strong-enough brand that he's surviving on his own.
2:13 PM PT: And just like that, the Flake campaign is out with its own responsive internal (courtesy the Tarrance Group), showing him ahead of Carmona 49-43. The polls were in the field at the exact same time (Oct. 7-9), but the DSCC survey had more respondents (602 vs. 453).
2:26 PM PT: NV-04: We haven't seen Barack Obama endorse a lot of downballot candidates this year, and most of those involved him supporting veteran Congressional Black Caucus members who faced potentially competitive primaries. But on Wednesday, he officially threw his support behind state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford, who has been running behind Republican Danny Tarkanian in the polls in Nevada's new 4th District. That suggests he's running behind Obama, too, and presumably the idea here is that earning the POTUS's imprimatur will boost Horsford (who is African-American) with black voters. However, there's no word on whether Obama will cut any ads for Horsford (something he's even stingier about), or whether this is just for press release and "sticking a photo on a mailer" purposes.
2:49 PM PT: Reshuffling Roundup:
• AZ-02, NY-27: On the bad news/good news front, House Majority PAC is making yet another buy (for $300K) in AZ-02, suggesting that perhaps Dem Rep. Ron Barber (the newest member of the entire House of Representatives) is not quite as secure as we might have hoped. On the flipside, they're also pouring $500K into NY-27, which hopefully means that Dem Rep. Kathy Hochul (another special election winner, of course) still has a shot.
• IL-08, -10, 11: The Hotline reports that the DCCC is cutting back on its TV ad buys for Oct. 23-29 in the Chicago area to the tune of $740K, leaving it with $297K for that timeframe. Don't fret, though: The D-Trip is probably just getting out of the way of the House Majority PAC, which as we mentioned yesterday is dumping $2.4 million into a new blitz targeting all three of these Chicagoland seats.
• PA-08, NJ-03: Oh well. It looks like the DCCC is giving up on Kathy Boockvar, our last, best hope in the Philly 'burbs this cycle. According to PoliticsPA's Keegan Gibson, the D-Trip is cancelling $585K worth of ad time for the last week of October that had been earmarked for PA-08, though he does note that there's still $722K reserved for the final week before the election. The Fix's Aaron Blake adds that the total cancellation in the Philadelphia market is actually $1.1 million for the week, which means the balance was probably slated for NJ-03, where Shelley Adler's previously been the victim of cutbacks. The NRCC must be feeling good, too, since they also ditched $788K in airtime for the same time period.
3:01 PM PT: 3Q Fundraising:
• FL-Sen: Bill Nelson (D-inc): $2.3 mil raised, $6.5 mil cash-on-hand; Connie Mack (R): $2.7 mil raised
• IN-Sen: Richard Mourdock (R): $3 mil raised, $1.3 mil cash-on-hand
• CA-26: Julia Brownley (D): $740K raised
• IL-08: Tammy Duckworth (D): $1.5 mil raised
• IL-10: Bob Dold! (R-inc): $1 mil raised
• NY-25: Louise Slaughter (D-inc): $730K raised
3:14 PM PT: IN-Sen: If, during the trench run at the end of Star Wars, some extra imperial ships showed up to help Vader instead of the Millennium Falcon whooshing in on Luke's side... well, that's what this new ad buy in Indiana from Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Action group is like. Obviously, they're trying to help Richard Mourdock ward off an upset by Democrat Joe Donnelly, with $435K in broadcast and cable TV time. Knock `em out the box, Luke!
3:18 PM PT: DesJarlais's Democratic opponent, state Sen. Eric Stewart, held a subsequent press conference, going right after DesJarlais as a hypocrite who broke his oath both as a husband and a physician.