Are you in a post-debate poll-diving funk? Never fear.... direct from the Mothership, the Penultimate Galactic Master brings the truth: unless Obama bombs the last two debates, Obama is going to be reelected.
Reasons a plenty below the fold...
1. Nothing else that happens in this campaign will be as enormously positive for Romney as the first debate, and Obama is within one point. TPM poll tracker has it at R 47.6, O 46.4.
2. Obama is underperforming his job approval numbers. Even after the debate debacle, the RCP polling aggregator puts the Obama job approval at 49% approve, 48.6% disapprove. (and it's 49.25 approve to 48 disapprove without a crazy rasmussen 51 disapprove result). The point is.... Romney is right-now very near to solidifying the Obama disapprovers, whereas there are some Obama approvers right now who are uncommited or not voting or voting third parties. These are relatively easy votes to claim.
3. A big RV/LV gap (related to point 2). For example, Gallup LV is 49R/47O but Gallup RV is 48O/46R... that's a 4 point swing to R with the LV screen. I seem to recall that 2-3 points is more typical so just getting democrats fired to the "typical level" is worth a point or two and maybe even 3 or 4.
4. Obama at 51 in Ohio with the latest PPP poll. Yeah, they have a dem lean, but if this is Obama's nadir, he's gonna take Ohio and Romney's gotta pull all of VA, FL, CO, NH, IA, NV (or maybe Wisconsin, which last went R in Reagan's 1984 landslide...)
5. Romney's rise is mostly due to Obama's screwups. This is more subjective, but Romney didn't really rise so much as Obama fell. After the debate, Romney solidified the Obama doubters (recall that his 47.6% vote share pretty much matches obama's 48% disapproval rate) and Obama discouraged his supporters. The point is: Romney really has no plan other than to keep doing the same, and hope that Obama keeps screwing up. Fat chance of that. Obama is in the driver's seat.
6. Do you really think that Romney has some killer new policy or line of attack against Obama that he hasn't tried yet? Any way to really change the race?
7. Remember the 7.8% unemployment rate that "didn't help anything"? It's still out there and people still know about it. The favorable economic fundamentals will figure into the margins that Obama will make in undecided voters. Nate Silver figures that economic fundamentals predict an Obama victory with a 2% margin
So here we are... Romney is at a point where he needs to win over 2/3 of the voters currently "meh" with Obama, drive down dem turnout, and pull a straight flush in the electoral college (most likely NV, IA, NH). He doesn't really have a strategy besides to keep doing what he's doing, relentlessly bash Obama in the debates and his advertising, hope Obama implodes, and put more campaign stops in IA/NV/NH.
But Obama has an easier job. He needs to turn out the people who like him and win a modest margin (about a third!) of the people who are "meh" about his job .... as it is measured today. The thing is, with stronger debate performances, Obama can improve his voters' enthusiasm, his job approval and his favorables... and common sense says he will do better to some degree.
One take-away from all this is that Obama does not "need" to destroy Romney or have Romney melt-down in the debates in order to win. Sure, it'd be a great help. But really, Obama just needs to energize his base and bump up his approvals and favorables from their currently depressed levels. He needs to stand up for himself, he does not need to dominate Romney. But for the love of God, he has to fight like he wants to.