As President Barack Obama took a dive in the polls after his disastrous first debate, my operating theory was that the bounce would fade after this weekend as the race's underlying dynamics reasserted themselves. That is, the fact that Obama was liked well enough, while Mitt Romney wasn't, would ultimately prevail and rebalance out the polls.
So how did that theory pan out?
Certainly mixed results. Just an FYI, the IBD/TIPP poll is awful, so I wouldn't celebrate it too much. Zogby may be even worse, so much so that they've rebranded as "JZ Analytics." RAND is an interesting experiment—they track the same group of people every day, so not a traditional poll. I used Gallup's registered voter numbers because they hadn't used their likely voter screen before the debate, so I wanted an apples-to-apples comparison.
Caveats aside, we have everything from a three-point Obama gain to a six-point Romney gain, but with Obama mostly in the lead.
Now let's average all of the national polling, and we get this:
On Oct. 1, Obama had a three-point lead, 48.9-45.9. At the height of his post-debate bump, Romney had a 47.6-46.2 advantage (a 1.4-point Obama deficit), a shift of 4.4 points.
This morning, Obama is back to a 1.3-point lead, 48.5-47.2.
But what's more, most of the States That Matter never looked as bleak as the national polling did. PPP's national numbers will be the most pessimistic for Obama this week, by far. Yet their Ohio poll, conducted over pretty much the same time frame, gave Obama a 51-46 lead—compared to a 49-45 lead before the debate. NBC/Marist gave Obama a 51-45 Ohio lead, while CNN a 51-47 lead. Including all the crap GOP baby Rasmussens, Obama still leads the state 48.4-45.5.
Indeed, Ohio is symptomatic of the Midwest, where Romney has been unable to claw his way back into serious contention in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Without those four states, Romney has to run the board on every other remaining battleground to win—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia. Narrow Romney leads in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia won't be enough.
One thing has certainly changed from two weeks ago—no one will talk about expanding the electoral map anymore. Even if Arizona looks competitive, as one poll has suggested, expect the Obama campaign to hunker down and focus on getting to 270.
And of course, tomorrow looms large. We've seen that this year, debates can move serious numbers. Obama has to be on top of his game.
Because as the polling trend has borne out, one bad debate didn't dramatically change the underlying trends of this race. A second one, on the other hand, might be another story entirely.