I get my poll compositing from NationalPolls.com. Yes, the general population there is rich in the Red Team faithful, but I think it helps to see what they're seeing. Today I saw one of their wishful think analyses:
Eight Positives on Romney's Poll Numbers
Here are eight reasons why Romney's poll numbers are looking good.
1.Suffolk University pollster says he's no longer going to poll Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia because he feels President Obama stands no chance in those states.
2.Virginia - Romney has taken the lead in two consecutive polls.
3.Florida - Romney is polling the best he ever has (over 50% in two of the past three polls).
4.North Carolina - Romney has polled better than 50% in three consecutive polls. President Obama has never reached 50% in the state.
5.Colorado - Romney leads in five of seven polls this month. He'd only held the lead in two of the prior 15 months worth of polls.
6.Nevada - Romney is in a statistical dead heat in four of the past five polls. Public Policy Polling (Pre-debate Obama +9, Post Debate Obama +4).
7.New Hampshire - Romney has the highest lead in the state he's ever held this year. American Research Group gives Romney a 9 point swing in the state.
8.Wisconsin - Romney is within the margin of error in each of the three past polls. He was behind by an average of 10 points in the three prior polls.
I was so shocked at this biased analysis I tried to create a Yahoo e-mail account to respond. (I'm not on Facebook, but that's another story...) Finally I said Nuts to this and decided to post here. Here's MY take on the numbers:
So because Romney has taken the lead in two Virgina polls, Suffolk thinks things are over? And this lead is a single point in a questionable poller and two points by Ras?
Check out Obama's daily rise in Florida against Romney's static numbers. No, really--44, 46, 47, 48 against 51, 49, 51, 49. Romney's got nowhere to go and last minute voters are siding with Obama.
Colorado is seeing an Obama surge back to pre-debate numbers of leading Romney. "Nevada is in a statistical dead heat" yet if you graph all those numbers not once does he ever lead. THESE ARE YOUR NUMBERS NATIONALPOLLS. "Margin of error in Wisconsin" yet has never had the lead. "Margin of error in Nevada" yet has never had the lead. First poll to have Romney lead in NH and NationalPolls commentator does a happy dance.
Even if NC, FL, VA, and CO go into Romney's column, Obama still leads 281 to 244, and that's assuming CO won't flip back to Obama. Sorry, the Math is not in Romney's favor.
Ahh, that felt better.