We have a few new swing state polls today. Numbers are below, followed by my analysis.
* FLORIDA: Obama 47%, Romney 46% -- Romney +3% since 6 weeks ago (SurveyUSA)
* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 48% -- Romney +4% since 1 week ago (Public Policy)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 49%, Romney 47% -- Romney +1% since 2 weeks ago (Public Policy)
Compared to the other polls we've been seeing out of Florida, most of which show Romney leads, the SurveyUSA poll of the state is a good number for Obama. Many are now questioning whether it continues to make sense for the Obama campaign to spend so much money in an expensive state like Florida which is trending to Romney, and which Obama doesn't need to win. So far, the Obama campaign has not shown any signs that they are going to concede the state, though.
Public Policy continues their recent string of non-sensical poll numbers. Does anybody really believe Obama has a bigger lead in Virginia than in Ohio? I'll let those numbers speak for themselves, and add once again that the days of robo-pollsters are hopefully coming to an end. We continue to see very erratic results from the robo-pollster group led by Public Policy and Rasmussen.
* RAND: Obama +3% (49%-46%)
* IBD/TIPP: Obama +3% (47%-44%)
* Public Policy: Obama +2% (49%-47%)
* Reuters: Obama +1% (46%-45%)
* Rasmussen: Romney +1% (49%-48%)
* Gallup: Romney +6% (51%-46%)
The national trackers today are more or less unchanged from yesterday when you average them all together. Obama gained 1% in both the IBD/TIPP and Public Policy trackers, lost 1% in the RAND and Rasmussen trackers, lost 2% in Reuters, and stayed the same in Gallup. A new NBC/WSJ/Marist national poll will be released Sunday, I'd put a lot more weight in what that poll says than what any of these tracking polls say.
Going back to the Florida thing. Right now, Obama's path to victory runs through Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio. Those states combine to get Obama to 277 electoral votes. It's his firewall. Nevada is showing no signs of fading from Obama's column, particularly in light of today's news that shows Democrats now have a 7% voter registration edge in the state, up from 4% back in March. Obama's back-up plan outside of these firewall states revolves around Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire, three states which are by all accounts toss-ups right now. It does raise the question of what the value is in investing so much in two very expensive states like Florida and North Carolina which have strongly trended to Romney since the Denver debate. If Obama does lose the election due to one of his firewall states not holding, there are going to be a lot of angry Democrats and surprised pundits who will question whether it was wise to invest so much in two red-leaning states in a climate where unemployment was high and the election was going to be close. Florida and North Carolina are states Democrats win in big years, like 2008, not in toss-up years, like 2000, 2004, and, from how it seems now, 2012. I'm not saying Obama can't win Florida, just saying that given how the electoral map looks right now, it may not be the best investment towards the only goal that matters -- winning.
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