No, I am not ready call the electoral college just yet. But my gut is talking to me. I am watching what is happening with early voting. I am looking at advertising in Omaha intended for IA but also having an impact in NE-02.
And I am starting to think that Obama will sweep all of the battleground states, some perhaps very narrowly, and the2nd CD of NE. That would get him to 348.
So why 359? B/c I think there is a real chance that there is a swelling of Hispanic vote that is not showing up in most of the polling. And there is a Native American vote in AZ, which was probably friendlier to McCain than it will be to Romney. I do not think Romney will draw any more from the AZ Mormons than the polling data is already indicating.
Do have I data to support this? Yes and no. There are the track record of things like NV in 2010 not properly accounting for the Hispanic vote b/c there was not enough interviewing in Spanish.
Also, most of the polls in places like AZ and NC and VA do not take into account the impact of minor party candidates,particularly Gary Johnson. He was Gov of neighboring NM, so I think he may play better than expected in AZ.
Would I bet on this prediction? Not yet.
My sense is that Obama is probably heavily likely for 30 EV - losing 2nd CD of NE, NC and FL. I think that is his floor. I think 332 - picking up Florida - is close to an even money proposition
Again, this is gut feeling, and I am not ready to commit to it.
But I think increasingly 348 or even 359 are possible.