I assume we have all by now seen the latest polling out of NH, with very good news, a 9 point lead for Obama! I saw in one earlier diary that someone said that NH is not all that important.
Well, here is why it is...
Assuming that Obama wins Wisconsin and Nevada, this brings him to base of 253 EVs.
Just 17 away…
Let’s say that Obama also wins New Hampshire…this brings him up to 257 EVs.
13 away.
Assuming Romney wins Florida, there are then 4 states outstanding: Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), and Virginia (13).
If Obama is already at 257 EVs without any of these 4 remaining states, this means that Romney would have to win at least 3 of those final 4 states (CO, IO, OH, VA) to win.
If Obama wins Ohio, he wins with 275.
If Obama wins Virginia, he wins with 270.
If Obama wins Colorado & Iowa, he wins with 272.
So…if Obama can win New Hampshire, that means Romney cannot let Obama win Ohio; he cannot let Obama win Virginia, and he cannot let Obama win both Colorado & Iowa.
So Romney must – if Obama wins NH – win at least 3 of the 4 states,
That will be tough for him to do…which is why Obama winning NH is VERY VERY important!!!