Dear Kossacks, this is a short diary that brings forth an obvious point that I am sure most of you have thought of. But to accurately measure a pollster the only way is to test it against final results, i.e. a one day sample point. No one knows right now the measure of the race.
More below the squiggle
Rasmussen for example i remember last year had mccain-obama gap much larger than other pollsters then 3 days before election day they started switching their numbers so in the end they looked accurate.
We may have some ex ante theory on why some polls may be more reliable, call back, live calling, sample size, cell phones but we really will never know the full truth of the accuracy of pollsters BEFORE election day.
That is why I wish the MSM would highlight Rasmussen as a Rep leaning pollster and definitely moves the RCP average by their well funded machine. I also dont understand why in RCP, PPP has a D next to it but Rasmussen doesn't have a R next to. I also wish the MSM would always say Rep leaning Rasmussen when talking about it.
Finally I have no idea why we seem to take "internal polling" as the gospel of truth, do they have a larger sample size, do they use more info, then why dont the other polling firms use their techniques.
Just some thoughts, del