All the polling that I have seen (and I have seen a lot) has one thing in common - no 3rd party candidates. It seems that the media has completely ignored the potential impact of a 3rd party vote. Follow me below to a look at what might happen and why.
An October 23rd Article from the Washington Post points to this...
Seems the names of Gary Johnson (libertarian) , Jill Stein (green), Rocky Anderson (justice) and Virgil Goode (constituational) are the names that are ignored but may actually play as spoilers in this election. Their names are on many ballots...their names are available for those who want to cast "neither" votes.
From the Washington Post The Fix Oct 23
Chris Cilliza writes “Politics is full of ironies. Gary Johnson voters are predisposed to voting against the incumbent president, but Johnson’s presence on the New Hampshire presidential ballot is actually helping Obama,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
This tells me that the toss up states may not be polling accurately. Why don't we see these numbers? Why does the polling not take these into account?
Continuing from the Fix
If Virginia is exceptionally close, Goode, despite attracting just two percent support in a mid-September Washington Post poll of Virginia voters, could be an also-ran to remember, causing some discomfort for Romney supporters. The state Republican Party tried to keep Goode out of the mix altogether earlier this year, alleging issues with the signatures he submitted to the state Board of Elections to get on the ballot.
I predict that at least 2% of voters will go with these candidates. And that my friends will impact the race. I predict that most if not all of the 2% will be those voters that Romney is counting on. We will see...we will see..