There have been several changes in the projection today, all in favor of the GOP. While that might sound bad, none of the changes are in major contested races except one. New Mexico going from solid Obama to likely Obama isn't exactly worth writing home about, for example. Maps are below.
Here are the changes from last time:
Minnesota: Solid D -> Likely D
New Mexico: Solid D -> Likely D
South Carolina: Likely R -> Solid R
Tennessee: Likely R -> Solid R
Both MN and NM were on the knife's edge of solid and likely, so their moves aren't really a big deal. Nor is Tennessee's move, which was entirely based on extremely old polls taken before while the GOP primary was still happening. South Carolina's move wasn't based on a poll, but on my own judgment due to the fact that we're not likely to get another poll there, and the only one showing it competitive was in January. It's very likely Romney will do better than McCain did there, and McCain won it by 9 points.
The no toss ups map remains unchanged, Obama is projected to win 303-235.
Now for the Senate:
There have been two moves since last update:
Missouri: Likely D -> Lean D
New Mexico: Safe D -> Likely D
Safe D: ME(R)^
Likely D: MA(R)^ NM(D), OH(D), PA(D), FL(D)
Lean D: AZ(R)^ CT(D), MO(D), VA(D), WI(D)
Toss Up: IN(R), MT(D), ND(D), NV(R)
Safe R: NE(D)^
Senate without Toss Ups, Angus King as Dem: 53-43-4.
Senate assuming candidate with tiny leads wins: 55-45. (GOP picks up NE and MT, Dems pick up ME, MA, AZ, IN).