Yesterday on Fox News Sunday, Brit Hume announced that the POLITICO/GWU Battleground poll coming out on Monday will show that Mitt Romney is ahead by 5!
I questioned how would Brit know this? Is POLITICO now such an arm of the GOP that they’re leaking their numbers directly to Brit friggin’ Hume?! Uhm, no.
Today, POLITICO released the poll and it shows the President leading Romney by 1, 49 to 48. The poll was conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.
Thanks to this diary from NJID, we learned that the RW media was still relying on Brit’s numbers to say Romney is ahead in the poll by 5 despite, you know, the actual poll showing Romney was actually leading from behind.
NJID’s diary links to a story in The Weekly Standard that continues to push this delusion:
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.[…snip]
The Weekly Standard later updated its laughable article to note:
UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney….In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%….
See, what had happened was that the republican half of the polling firm decided to expand on the poll numbers by writing a memo to explain why even though Romney was behind, he was actually ahead! The "Battleground Poll," didn't do a “vote election model,” as The Weekly Standard said. The republican half of the polling outfiit, Tarrance Group, did one!
Follow me below the Swirly Swiggle of Sandy™ to see GOP spin in action!
The Tarrance Group's memo is here. The memo is simply republican spin and bullshit. Laughable bullshit. No, seriously, you’ve got to read the memo, because it's full of hilarity. The first heading gives the spin away:
The Political Environment in the final days of the 2012 Election is one in which the basic dynamics, and deeply held negatives towards Barack Obama, has not changed throughout this campaign!
Exclamation point and all! Makes it more powerful!! The Second heading:
Name Identification, or as the Obama Campaign refers to it, “likability” is no longer Obama’s strong suit, as “cool” turns to “angry” on the campaign trail!
Seriously, WTH. The memo is filled with juicy tidbits like the President is only “very well liked” “[i]n the urban segments of the country…The reverse is true in other parts of the country.” Additionally, did you know that men, seniors, Independents, white voters, white women, middle class voters, and middle class families hate him? Well, the Tarrance Group does!
The President will have very little goodwill to use with many of the very demographic groups that will be decisive in this election. Additionally, the more negative his campaign, both in ads and on the campaign trail, the more problematic the negatives will become.
Although real Americans hate this President, they just love, love, love Mitt Romney...thanks to the debates!!! The only people who despise Mitt Romney are "those people" in the “urban areas.”
Differing with the President’s image, Mitt Romney is upside down with his image in the urban areas (40% favorable and 52% unfavorable), but receives strong favorable measurements in the suburbs (59% favorable/36% unfavorable) and the rural areas of the country (60% favorable/37% unfavorable). Romney’s image in the Politico Battleground states (55% favorable to 41% unfavorable) may be a key factor in the final days of the campaign. In fact, it would be hard for it not to be when Barack Obama’s image is a net six-points negative and Mitt Romney’s image is a net fourteen-points positive.
As this race moves into its final days, Romney will have a reservoir of goodwill with these crucial voting blocs, not only in the swing states, but also across a large swath of America.
The third heading:
The Presidential Ballot – the race continues to be closer than a knife fight in a phone both – or does it?
LOL! The Tarrance Group’s bottom line:
In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory.
Man, if they have to spin like this, I think they know they’re losing. You really should check out the memo. It is full of hilarity. It also shows how you try to spin away bad news when you know your candidate's goose is cooked!
POLTICO/GWU’s bottom line, President Obama 49, Mitt “Full of Shit” Romney 48.