We only have one new state poll today, but coupled with the day's national trackers and yesterday's polling, we continue to see a shift to Romney following his debate performance on Wednesday.
Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.
* COLORADO: Romney 49%, Obama 46% -- Romney +7% since 2 weeks ago (Gravis)
The Gallup national tracker showed Obama's lead declining from 5% to 3% (Romney +2%), while the Rasmussen national tracker showed Obama's 2% lead shifting to a Romney 2% lead (Romney +4%).
The 538 election forecast also has recorded Romney's biggest gains in awhile, as it is now at 310.6 Obama vs. 227.5 Romney, with an 80.2% chance of victory for Obama versus a 19.8% chance for Romney. While still not great, this is the best position Romney has been in in several weeks. If he gets a few more days of polling data like the numbers we have seen the last two days, he is likely to continue to move up in this forecast.
It's hard to dispute that Romney is getting a bounce, quite possibly a significant one. Virtually every poll released in the last two days has shown that. Whatever counter-bounce Obama gets from the drop in unemployment that came out yesterday will probably begin to show up in tomorrow's Gallup and Rasmussen trackers. While Friday (unemployment number came out Friday morning) is included in today's Gallup and Rasmussen numbers, the percentage of surveys coming after the news are probably too small to have any impact until at least tomorrow.
It should also be noted that a lot of this data, particularly some of yesterday's one-day only flash polls, contain the immediate reaction to the debate, which may amplify the extent of Romney's overall bounce some.
What we're seeing right now is why I continue to think, as I said last week, that Obama's best strategy right now would be to pull resources from a state like North Carolina and instead try to fortify states like Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. If, at his absolute peak, Obama had North Carolina at a toss-up, it stood to logic that even the slightest national shift back to Romney would turn NC into a lean-red, which is where it probably now is. Obama doesn't need North Carolina and likely only will win it if he wins the national popular vote by over 5%, at which point the election won't be close anyway. He needs to prepare for the chance that this election will be close, in which case an Ohio-Nevada-New Hampshire or Ohio-Iowa-New Hampshire firewall will be a lot more valuable than keeping a state like North Carolina slightly closer.
We should be able to tell by Monday the full extent of the bounce Romney has gotten, but there is no real doubt that he has gotten one. Whether that fades or sticks will depend largely on the reaction to the unemployment rate drop, the news of next week, and probably most importantly, whether Obama can win the next Presidential debate and redeem for his lackluster performance on Wednesday. That first debate performance is costing Obama quite a bit right now.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.