Week 8 of the intrading the Senate.
The goal of this is to follow the changes in the Intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign.
Methodology: I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.
Ratings changes this week: Hienrich (D) in New Mexico has maintained at least 80% support for 2 weeks and is now off the board. This is a very thinly traded race, and never was probably never really that big. Nelson(D) of Florida has risen above the 80% mark and will be removed from the board if Mack doesn't gain next week.
Arizona: Flake (R) leads Carmona (D) leads 62.0 - 38.0. Carmona makes good progress, picking up about 20 points on Flake. Republican hold
Connecticut: Murphy(D) leads McMahon (R) 66.6 - 33.4. McMahon makes progress. There must have been a poll here, as this race hadn't changed for weeks. But Murphy still holds a good lead.. Democratic Hold
Florida: Bill Nelson (D) leads Connie Mack IV (R) 80.0 - 20.0. Last week Mack made enough progress to stave off being taken off the board by getting above 20% support. This week he falls back into danger.Democratic Hold
Indiana: Mourdock (R) leads Donnelly (D) 55.0 - 45.0. Early in the week Donnelly came within a point of catching Mourdock, but by the end of the week was 10 behind. Republican Hold
Massachusetts: Warren(D) leads Brown(R) 61.3 - 38.7. Brown doesn't seem to be getting traction.Democratic Pickup
Missouri: McCaskill (D) leads Akin (R) 64.3 - 35.6. Very little movement in this race for several weeks. Akin doesn't seem to be making his case. Democratic Hold
Montana: Rehberg(R) leads Tester(D) 63.9 - 36.1. Rehberg seems to pick up about 3 points each week. He does it again this week.Republican Pickup
Nevada: Heller(R) leads Berkley(D) 63.9 - 36.1. Berkley picks up a few, but still needs more. Republican Hold
North Dakota: Berg(R) leads Heitkamp(D) 67.0 - 33.0. Berg Republican Pickup
Ohio: Brown(D) leads Mandel(R) 70.3 - 29.7. Mandel picks up about 10 points. This is the first week that he has gained in the last month. Still a long way to go. Democratic Hold
Pennsylvania: Casey(D) leads Smith(R) 79.0 - 21.0. Casey gets ever so close to getting this one back above 80% and taking it off the board. Democratic hold
Virginia: Kaine(D) leads Allen(R) 67.4 - 32.6. Allen picks up about 10 points this week. This one hadn't changed in several weeks. Allen needs to have more good weeks if he's going to have a chance. Democratic hold
Wisconsin: Baldwin(D) leads Thompson(R) 63.7 - 36.3. Thompson gains a little, but Baldwin still well ahead. Democratic Hold
Off the board. Intrade predicts at least an 80% chance of the following results:
California (D Hold)
Delaware (D Hold)
Hawaii (D Hold)
Maine (I Pickup from R)
Maryland (D Hold)
Michigan (D Hold)
Minnesota (D Hold)
Mississippi (R Hold)
Nebraska (R Pickup)
New Jersey (D Hold)
New Mexico (D Hold)
New York (D Hold)
Rhode Island (D Hold)
Tennessee (R Hold)
Texas (R Hold)
Utah (R Hold)
Vermont (I Hold)
Washington (D Hold)
West Virginia (D Hold)
Results: So the current Intrade tally is 3 Republican pickups (Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota with a Democratic pickup (Massachusetts) an Independent pickup (Maine)).
Final Score:
Current Senate: 53 Democrats (including 2 independents) - 47 Republicans
Intrade Senate Prediction for 2013: 52 Democrats (including 2 independents) - 48 Republicans.