The continuing panic/vitriol coming from folks is starting to get a little tiring. No, Andrew Sullivan, Obama didn't lose the election last week. He took a hit, a serious one, and if things don't change he could be on his way to losing. But if there's a silver lining in all the bad polling we're seeing it's this: People still like Obama. In almost every post-debate poll, Obama's favorables have remained strong. And considering how a lot folks here believe Obama gave the worst debate in the history of the world, it's surprising he's only down by 4 and 2 in the two polls showing Romney with a national lead. More than likely, Obama still has a small lead. After the worst debate in history.
If anything, folks should be feeling pretty good. Romney was awesome last week. He really did wipe the floor with Obama. Yet, Obama is still winning. So let's look ahead to the next debate. If you recall, polls showed that people expected Obama to win the first debate by a significant margin. Considering Romney's debating prowess, Obama was set-up for a fall. He helped this by performing poorly. This time around, though, I doubt anyone will expect him to win. Expectations will be somewhere in W territory. If Obama has a decent debate, he'll likely be called the winner. Considering his already strong position with the electorate, this could give him a bounce, putting him back in the favorite's position. And considering his financial and organizational might, he'll be on his way to reelection.
Two things are required for this scenario to work out. First, Obama actually needs to have a good debate, something not at all guaranteed. I doubt Romney will get overconfident and slack-off, so Obama really needs to step it up. Second, the pump needs to be primed for the Obama comeback story. I think we're seeing the beginning of this with stories in Politico and the Times about how Obama and his team dealt with the debate loss.
This election won't be a landslide either way. It's going to be close, something the Obama campaign has game-planned for from the beginning. This is a big moment for Obama, and for the first time, I think a lot of us are not sure how he'll handle it. But a smart politician can turn this to his advantage. If Obama has a strong debate next week, he'll be able to stand in front of an adoring crowd the next day and proclaim himself the Comeback Kid.
And people will be believe him.