You've heard the whole Nate Silver is gay and wrong, Joe Scarborough has a gut feeling thing, so Eli will tell you why there is a divergence between the national and state level polls
Romney is kicking ass in the core Republican states (maybe 200 eV). The leads are crazy large. The national trend is roughly even, there are 538 eV so Obama has a substantial eV lead. Why?
The analogy is to vote packing as perfected by the Republicans. You pack all your opponents into a small number of districts, let them win there and accept smaller margins in the majority of places.