One recurring theme is that a lot of non-White people voted for Obama. But so did a lot of White people. After all, you can't win all of New England without getting a lot of White folk to vote for you. I got to wondering what proportion of White voters voted for Obama in each state.
Simplifying assumptions I had to make some assumptions. I assumed that Obama won 95% of the Black vote in every state, and 75% of the non-White, non-Black vote in every state. These seem reasonable and modest changes in the numbers do not make big differences in the results
The table is below the Kos Croissant, and thanks to Palantir for help with the formatting.
In each row there is the state abbreviation, the proportion White, Black and Other (per the census) the proportion Obama won (as of yesterday), then my estimate of the Obama support that came from Blacks (05% of the proportion Black), others (75% times prop. other) and the remainder. Finally, the proportion of White voters who voted Obama.
State |
Prop white |
Prop black |
Prop other |
Prop Obama |
Black Obama support |
Other Obama support |
remainder |
White Obama support |
MS |
0.59 |
0.37 |
0.039 |
0.44 |
0.352 |
0.029 |
0.059 |
0.1 |
LA |
0.626 |
0.32 |
0.054 |
0.41 |
0.304 |
0.041 |
0.066 |
0.105 |
AL |
0.685 |
0.262 |
0.053 |
0.38 |
0.249 |
0.04 |
0.091 |
0.133 |
GA |
0.597 |
0.305 |
0.098 |
0.45 |
0.29 |
0.074 |
0.087 |
0.145 |
OK |
0.722 |
0.074 |
0.204 |
0.33 |
0.07 |
0.153 |
0.107 |
0.148 |
UT |
0.861 |
0.011 |
0.128 |
0.25 |
0.01 |
0.096 |
0.144 |
0.167 |
SC |
0.662 |
0.279 |
0.059 |
0.44 |
0.265 |
0.044 |
0.131 |
0.197 |
AR |
0.77 |
0.15 |
0.08 |
0.37 |
0.143 |
0.06 |
0.168 |
0.218 |
WY |
0.907 |
0.008 |
0.085 |
0.28 |
0.008 |
0.064 |
0.209 |
0.23 |
TX |
0.704 |
0.118 |
0.178 |
0.41 |
0.112 |
0.134 |
0.164 |
0.234 |
TN |
0.776 |
0.167 |
0.057 |
0.39 |
0.159 |
0.043 |
0.189 |
0.243 |
AK |
0.667 |
0.033 |
0.300 |
0.420 |
0.031 |
0.225 |
0.164 |
0.245 |
ID |
0.891 |
0.006 |
0.103 |
0.33 |
0.006 |
0.077 |
0.247 |
0.277 |
KS |
0.838 |
0.059 |
0.103 |
0.38 |
0.056 |
0.077 |
0.247 |
0.294 |
NC |
0.685 |
0.215 |
0.1 |
0.49 |
0.204 |
0.075 |
0.211 |
0.308 |
NE |
0.861 |
0.045 |
0.094 |
0.38 |
0.043 |
0.071 |
0.267 |
0.31 |
KY |
0.878 |
0.078 |
0.044 |
0.38 |
0.074 |
0.033 |
0.273 |
0.311 |
AZ |
0.73 |
0.04 |
0.23 |
0.44 |
0.038 |
0.173 |
0.23 |
0.314 |
WV |
0.939 |
0.034 |
0.027 |
0.35 |
0.032 |
0.02 |
0.297 |
0.317 |
SD |
0.859 |
0.013 |
0.128 |
0.4 |
0.012 |
0.096 |
0.292 |
0.34 |
VA |
0.686 |
0.194 |
0.12 |
0.51 |
0.184 |
0.09 |
0.236 |
0.344 |
ND |
0.9 |
0.012 |
0.088 |
0.39 |
0.011 |
0.066 |
0.313 |
0.347 |
MO |
0.828 |
0.116 |
0.056 |
0.44 |
0.11 |
0.042 |
0.288 |
0.348 |
IN |
0.843 |
0.091 |
0.066 |
0.44 |
0.086 |
0.05 |
0.304 |
0.361 |
FL |
0.75 |
0.16 |
0.09 |
0.5 |
0.152 |
0.068 |
0.281 |
0.374 |
NV |
0.662 |
0.081 |
0.257 |
0.52 |
0.077 |
0.193 |
0.25 |
0.378 |
MT |
0.894 |
0.004 |
0.102 |
0.42 |
0.004 |
0.077 |
0.34 |
0.38 |
OH |
0.827 |
0.122 |
0.051 |
0.5 |
0.116 |
0.038 |
0.346 |
0.418 |
NM |
0.684 |
0.021 |
0.295 |
0.53 |
0.02 |
0.221 |
0.289 |
0.422 |
MD |
0.582 |
0.294 |
0.124 |
0.62 |
0.279 |
0.093 |
0.248 |
0.426 |
PA |
0.819 |
0.108 |
0.073 |
0.52 |
0.103 |
0.055 |
0.363 |
0.443 |
CO |
0.813 |
0.04 |
0.147 |
0.51 |
0.038 |
0.11 |
0.362 |
0.445 |
MI |
0.789 |
0.142 |
0.069 |
0.54 |
0.135 |
0.052 |
0.353 |
0.448 |
CA |
0.576 |
0.062 |
0.362 |
0.59 |
0.059 |
0.272 |
0.26 |
0.451 |
DE |
0.689 |
0.214 |
0.097 |
0.59 |
0.203 |
0.073 |
0.314 |
0.456 |
IL |
0.715 |
0.145 |
0.14 |
0.57 |
0.138 |
0.105 |
0.327 |
0.458 |
NJ |
0.686 |
0.137 |
0.177 |
0.58 |
0.13 |
0.133 |
0.317 |
0.462 |
MN |
0.853 |
0.052 |
0.095 |
0.53 |
0.049 |
0.071 |
0.409 |
0.48 |
WI |
0.862 |
0.063 |
0.075 |
0.53 |
0.06 |
0.056 |
0.414 |
0.48 |
WA |
0.773 |
0.036 |
0.191 |
0.55 |
0.034 |
0.143 |
0.373 |
0.482 |
IA |
0.913 |
0.029 |
0.058 |
0.52 |
0.028 |
0.044 |
0.449 |
0.492 |
OR |
0.836 |
0.018 |
0.146 |
0.54 |
0.017 |
0.11 |
0.413 |
0.494 |
NH |
0.939 |
0.011 |
0.05 |
0.52 |
0.01 |
0.038 |
0.472 |
0.503 |
CT |
0.776 |
0.101 |
0.123 |
0.59 |
0.096 |
0.092 |
0.402 |
0.518 |
NY |
0.657 |
0.159 |
0.184 |
0.63 |
0.151 |
0.138 |
0.341 |
0.519 |
HI |
0.247 |
0.016 |
0.737 |
0.7 |
0.015 |
0.553 |
0.132 |
0.535 |
ME |
0.952 |
0.012 |
0.036 |
0.56 |
0.011 |
0.027 |
0.522 |
0.548 |
MA |
0.804 |
0.066 |
0.13 |
0.61 |
0.063 |
0.098 |
0.45 |
0.559 |
RI |
0.814 |
0.057 |
0.129 |
0.63 |
0.054 |
0.097 |
0.479 |
0.589 |
VT |
0.953 |
0.01 |
0.037 |
0.67 |
0.01 |
0.028 |
0.633 |
0.664 |
Except for Hawaii, the states where Obama did best among Whites are all in New England. One interesting thing is that two states that Obama won narrowly (CO and NV) have rapidly growing Latino populations. Another is that GA could easily be in play next time.