It has been a great few days of polling for Democrats. There are 10 moves today, and 9 favor the Democrats. Maps are below.
There have been 3 moves in the toss up maps, all favoring the Democrats, although only one was particularly important.
Wisconsin: Lean D -> Likely D
Indiana: Solid R -> Likely R
South Dakota: Solid R -> Likely R
Wisconsin seems to be reverting back to being more like MI/PA/OR (at least in the presidential race), suggesting any Ryan bounce has faded.
This is the first change that the no toss ups map has had in a while.
Florida: Romney -> Obama
Obama's very slim lead in the polls in Florida may or not hold. It will be interesting to find out if it does. And now for the Senate:
Many changes here, 4 in favor of the Democrats:
Connecticut: Lean D -> Likely D
Florida: Likely D -> Solid D
Indiana: Toss Up -> Solid D (!!!)
Missouri: Lean D -> Likely D
And 1 in favor of the Republicans:
Wisconsin: Lean D -> Toss Up
Linda McMahon seems to be fading just like she did in 2010. It's curtains for Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV in Florida. Indiana is a real eye popper, as the respected Howey poll put Donnelly 11 points ahead. Do I think this is now a safe Dem seat, realistically? Not really, but it's pretty clear that Donnelly is now completely in the driver's seat here.
Tammy Baldwin now only has the slimmest of edges in Wisconsin. Losing this one would really hurt, but hopefully Obama's coattails will be enough to pull her through.
There has also been in a change in the no toss ups Senate.
Montana: Rehberg -> Tester
Safe D: ME(R)^, IN(R)^
Likely D: CT(D), MA(R)^, MO(D), NM(D), OH(D), PA(D)
Lean D: AZ(R)^ VA(D)
Toss Up: MT(D), ND(D), NV(R), WI(D)
Lean R: NE(D)^
Senate without Toss Ups, Angus King as Dem: 53-43-4.
Senate assuming candidate with tiny leads wins: 56-44. (GOP picks up NE, Dems pick up ME, MA, AZ, IN).