Finally, after a grueling election cycle that has seemed like an eternity, the 2012 elections are coming to a close. Later today, tens of millions of Americans will head to the polls and choose their next President, Congressman, Mayor and Dog Catcher.
Below, you will find my predictions and a guide to follow the night by.
THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE
This race pits the incumbents, President Barack Obama of Illinois and Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, against the challengers, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan.
Major media networks have designate 11 of the 50 states as battleground states. They are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
My prediction map, courtesy of 270towin.com, can be seen here. Each state prediction is below. I predict the President will win the popular vote 50.4 - 48.2 and the Electoral College 303-235.
Colorado Real Clear Politics' average of polls: Obama 48.8 - 47.3; my prediction: Obama 49.2 - 47.4
Florida Real Clear Politics' average of polls: Romney 49.7 - 48.2; my prediction: Romney 49.2 - 48.7
Iowa Real Clear Politics' average of polls: Obama 48.7 - 46.3; my prediction: Obama 50.1 - 48.0
Michigan Real Clear Politics' average of polls: Obama 49.5 - 45.5; my prediction: Obama 52.7 - 46.3
Nevada Real Clear Politics' average of polls: Obama 50.2 - 47.4; my prediction: Obama 52.9 - 45.5
New Hampshire Real Clear Politics' average of polls: Obama 49.9 - 47.9; my prediction: Obama 50.4 - 47.9
North Carolina Real Clear Politics' average of polls: Romney 49.2 - 46.2; my prediction: Romney 49.4 - 48.1
Ohio Real Clear Politics' average of polls: Obama 50.0 - 47.1; my prediction: Obama 50.8 - 47.5
Pennsylvania Real Clear Politics' average of polls: Obama 49.4 - 45.6; my prediction: Obama 52.2 - 46.0
Virginia Real Clear Politics' average of polls: Obama 48.0 - 47.7; my prediction: Obama 49.1 - 47.7
Wisconsin Real Clear Politics' average of polls: Obama 50.4 - 46.2; my prediction: Obama 50.9 - 47.1
THE SENATE RACES
33 of 100 Senate seats will be decided on Nov. 6. Democrats (and Independents who caucus with them) hold 23 seats, while Republicans hold 10 seats. The current composition of the Senate is 53-47 for the Democrats.
At the beginning of the election cycle, very few credible political analysts predicted Democrats would hold the Senate, as they had so many more seats up for reelection and had a few tough retirements.
As voters head to the polls, the race for the Senate has been turned on its head. Democrats are predicted to not only hold their majority, but they will very likely retain their numbers, and even have a chance to gain a seat or two.
Below are ratings for all 33 seats, as categorized by tilt, lean, likely and safe for one party. Tilt seats mean the leading party's candidate is winning by between 0-3.9 points, lean between 4-7.9 points, likely between 8-11.9 points and safe over 12 points.
Currently, there are 13 races that are currently safe for the Democrats (or Independents who are likely to caucus with them): California, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia. Note, Maine is a Democratic pickup, as Sen. Olympia Snowe's successor, former Gov. Angus King, is likely to caucus with the Democrats. This starts the Senate projections off at 54D-46R.
Conversely, these 5 seats are rated as safe Republican: Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.
The remaining 15 races are being contested. They are:
Arizona, where Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Mesa, and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona, D-Tucson, are locked in a tight race to replace Republican Jon Kyl. I rate this as Lean GOP.
Connecticut, where Rep. Chris Murphy, D-Cheshire, leads former WWE President and CEO Linda McMahon, R-Greenwich, to replace Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman. I rate this as Likely Democrat.
Florida, where Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Orlando, leads Rep. Connie Mack IV, R-Fort Myers, by a decent margin. I rate this as Likely Democrat.
Indiana, where Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-South Bend, has surprised just about everyone and pulled into a statistically significant lead over state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, R-Darmstadt, in the wake of Mourdock's comments about rape and victory over Sen. Richard Lugar in the Republican primary. I rate this as Lean Democrat. This leaves the Senate at 55D-45R.
Massachusetts, where Sen. Scott Brown, R-Wrentham, appears to be headed to defeat at the hands of Harvard law professor and consumer activist Elizabeth Warren, D-Cambridge. I rate this as Lean Democrat. This leaves the Senate at 56D-44R.
Missouri, where Rep. Todd Akin, R-Wildwood, appears to have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory after controversial comments he made regarding "legitimate rape." Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-St. Louis, appears likely to return to the Senate for a second term. I rate this as Lean Democrat.
Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester, D-Big Sandy, and Rep. Denny Rehberg, R-Billings, are locked in arguably the closest race in the country. I rate this as Tilt GOP by the slightest of margins. Expect a recount. This leaves the Senate at 55D-45R.
Nebraska, where State Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Lincoln, appears likely to thwart former Sen. Bob Kerrey's, D-Omaha, comeback bid in the race to replace Democrat Sen. Ben Nelson. I rate this as Lean GOP. This leaves the Senate at 54D-46R.
Nevada, where Sen. Dean Heller, R-Carson City, appears locked in the tightest of races with Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Las Vegas. I rate this as Tilt Democrat by the slightest of margins. Expect a recount. This leaves the Senate at 55D-45R.
New Mexico, where Rep. Martin Heinrich, D-Albuquerque, leads former Rep. Heather Wilson, R-Albuquerque to replace Democratic Sen. Jeff Bingaman. I rate this as Likely Democrat.
North Dakota, where former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, D-Mandan, has arguably ran the nation's best campaign and against all odds pulled into a virtual tie with Rep. Rick Berg, R-Fargo, to replace Democrat Kent Conrad. This race, more than any other, has been affected by old school retail politicking and some fantastic ads from the candidate herself. Despite this, I rate this as Tilt GOP by the slightest of margins due to the state's Republican lean. This leaves the Senate at 54D-46R.
Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Avon, is leading state Treasurer Josh Mandel, R-Beachwood, despite a flood of outside Super PAC money. I rate this as Lean Democrat.
Pennsylvania, where Sen. Bob Casey, Jr., D-Scranton, holds a lead over coal mining executive Tom Smith, R-Plumcreek, despite being heavily outspent by the wealthy Republican. I rate this as Lean Democrat.
Virginia, where former Gov. Tim Kaine, D-Richmond, has pulled ahead of former Sen. George Allen, R-Mount Vernon, to replace Democratic Sen. Jim Webb. I rate this as Lean Democrat.
Wisconsin, where former Gov. Tommy Thompson, R-Elroy, has fallen behind Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Madison, in the fight to replace Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl. I rate this as Tilt Democrat.
THE HOUSE RACES
The current composition of the US House of Representatives is 240 Republicans and 190 Democrats. Democrats need 28 seats, or 218 members, to win a majority.
Ratings are listed by state. Gains/losses of half a seat are the results of redistricting:
Alabama: 6R-1D before election, 6R-1D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 6R-1D.
Alaska: 1R before election, 1R after. No change. Cumulative House total at 7R-1D.
Arizona: 5R-3D before election, 5D-4R after. Democrats net 1.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 11R-6D.
AZ-01: Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick returns to Congress, defeating Republican State Sen. Jonathan Paton in this rural and heavily Native American congressional seat. Lean Democrat.
AZ-09: Openly bisexual Democratic State Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, friend and former roommate of Gabby Giffords, leads Vernon Parker, a Republican Paradise Valley town council member, in this Tempe-based district. Lean Democrat.
Arkansas: 3R-1D before election, 4R after. Republicans net 1 seat. Cumulative House total at 15R-6D.
AR-04: Iraq War veteran Tom Cotton looks to have finally broken the hold on this Dixiecrat seat, as he leads Democratic State Sen. Gene Jeffries. Likely GOP.
California: 34D-19R before election, 39D-14R after. Democrats net 5 seats. Cumulative House total at 45D-29R.
CA-07: In a rematch from 2010, Dr. Ami Bera, the Democratic candidate, appears to be heading to victory against Republican Rep. Dan Lungren in this Sacramento-area district. Lean Democrat.
CA-10: A superlative campaign from former astronaut and Democrat José Hernández has given him what looks like the narrowest of leads in Republican Rep. Jeff Denham’s Central Valley-based seat. Tilt Democrat.
CA-26: Democratic State Assemblywoman Julia Brownley is leading her opponent, Republican State Sen. Tony Strickland in this redrawn Central Coast district. Likely Democrat.
CA-36: Republican Rep. Mary Bono Mack appears to be in the race of her life as her redrawn Riverside County district appears to be slipping towards her Democratic opponent, Dr. Raul Ruiz. Tilt Democrat.
CA-41: Democrat Mark Takano, an openly gay member of the Riverside Community College Board of Trustees, appears to have a significant lead over John Tavaglione, a Republican Riverside County Supervisor in a new Riverside County based seat. Likely Democrat.
CA-52: Republican Rep. Brian Bilbray’s San Diego-based district went through a great deal of changes in redistricting, and as a result, Democrat Scott Peters appear headed to Congress come 2013. Lean Democrat.
Colorado: 4R-3D before election, 4D-3R after. Democrats net 1 seat. Cumulative House total at 49D-32R.
CO-06: Tea Party Republican Rep. Mike Coffman’s suburban Denver district shifted significantly towards the Democrats after redistricting, allowing State Rep. Joe Miklosi to gain the narrowest of leads. Tilt Democrat.
Connecticut: 5D before election, 5D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 54D-32R.
Delaware: 1D before election, 1D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 55D-32R.
Florida: 19R-6D before election, 16R-11D after. Democrats net 4 seats. Cumulative House total at 66D-48R.
FL-09: This new Orlando-based seat will likely return the controversial Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson to Congress in 2013 over his Republican opponent, Todd Long. Likely Democrat.
FL-10: Val Demings, the Democratic Chief of the Orlando Police Department, has ran a strong campaign to unseat Republican Rep. Dan Webster in an Orlando area district that leans towards the GOP. Demings appears to hold an incredibly small lead after a late ad buy supporting her from New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Tilt Democrat.
FL-18: Republican Rep. Allen West’s reputation as a firebrand appears to be hurting him in this new South Florida district, while his Democratic opponent, Patrick Murphy, has remained competitive. Tilt Democrat.
FL-22: Democratic West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel is ahead in this redrawn Palm Beach County seat over former Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner. Lean Democrat.
FL-26: Scandal-plagued Republican Rep. David Rivera is headed for defeat in this South Florida seat to his 2010 opponent Joe Garcia. Likely Democrat.
Georgia: 8R-5D before election, 9R-5D after. Republicans net 0.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 71D-57R.
GA-12: Despite this swing district’s rightward shift in redistricting, Democratic Rep. John Barrow is poised to pull off a small win against his Republican opponent, State Rep. Lee Anderson. Tilt Democrat.
Hawaii: 2D before election, 2D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 73D-57R.
Idaho: 2R before election, 2R after. No change. Cumulative House total at 73D-59R.
Illinois: 11R-8D before election, 13D-5R after. Democrats net 5.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 86D-64R.
IL-08: Bombastic Tea Party Republican Rep. Joe Walsh is headed for a sizeable defeat at the hands of veteran Tammy Duckworth in this suburban Chicago seat. Likely Democrat.
IL-10: Republican Rep. Bob Dold is locked in a very tight race with Democratic business executive Brad Schneider in this suburban Chicago seat. Tilt Democrat.
IL-11: Another competitive suburban Chicago seat, this one appears to be leaning in favor of former Democratic Rep. Bill Foster over Republican Rep. Judy Biggert. Lean Democrat.
IL-12: The retirement of longtime Democratic Rep. Jerry Costello in this swing suburban St. Louis district appears close, with General Bill Enyart, the leader of the Illinois National Guard, holding a small lead over Republican Jason Plummer. Lean Democrat.
IL-13: Physician David Gill is locked in a tight race with Republican congressional aide Rodney Davis in this central Illinois swing district.. Tilt Democrat.
IL-17: Quad Cities-based Republican Rep. Bobby Schilling appears to narrowly trail East Moline alderwoman Cheri Bustos. Tilt Democrat.
Indiana: 6R-3D before election, 7R-2D after. Republicans net 1 seat. Cumulative House total at 88D-71R.
IN-02: Republican State Rep. Jackie Walorski is leading in this redrawn South Bend-based district in northern Indiana that Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly vacated to run for Senate. She appears headed to victory over veteran Brendan Mullen. Lean Republican.
Iowa: 3D-2R before election, 3D-1R after. Democrats net 0.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 91D-72R.
IA-03: A battle of incumbents in this Des Moines-based congressional seat, it appears Republican Rep. Tom Latham’s fundraising advantage has allowed him to pull ahead slightly of longtime Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell. Tilt Republican.
IA-04: Democrat Christie Vilsack, popular former Iowa First Lady, has ran a good campaign and put up a strong challenge to bombastic Republican Rep. Steve King, whose past statements may cause him to lose in this Republican-leaning district. Tilt Democrat.
Kansas: 4R before election, 4R after. No changeKentucky: 4R-2D before election, 4R-2D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 93D-80R.
Louisiana: 6R-1D before election, 5R-1D after. Democrats net 0.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 94D-85R.
LA-03: An intra-party battle of incumbents, it appears experience over ideology will win out as establishment Republican Rep. Charles Boustany leads freshman Tea Party Rep. Jeff Landry in this Acadiana House seat. Lean Boustany.
Maine: 2D before election, 2D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 96D-85R.
Maryland: 6D-2R before election, 7D-1R after. Democrats net 1 seat. Cumulative House total at 103D-86R.
MD-06: Redistricting shifted this district to the left, which has appeared to have allowed Democratic businessman John Delaney to pull ahead of longtime Republican Rep. Roscoe Bartlett in this western Maryland-based district. Lean Democrat.
Massachusetts: 10D before election, 9D after. Republicans net 0.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 112D-86R.
MA-06: Scandals surrounding the family of Democratic Rep. John Tierney has allowed Richard Tisei, the 2010 openly gay Republican candidate for Lt. Governor, to run even with the longtime Essex County-based Congressman. Tilt Democrat.
Michigan: 9R-6D before election, 8R-6D after. Democrats net 0.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 118D-94R.
MI-01: In a rematch from 2010, it appears this time former Democratic State Rep. Gary McDowell leads Republican Rep. Dan Benishek for this northern Michigan district that spans the state’s Upper Peninsula region. Lean Democrat.
Minnesota: 4D-4R before election, 5D-3R after. Democrats net 1 seat. Cumulative House total at 123D-97R.
MN-08: Republican Rep. Chip Cravaack appears likely to lose to former Rep. Rick Nolan in this historically Democratic Duluth-based district. Lean Democrat.
Mississippi: 3R-1D before election, 3R-1D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 124D-100R.
Missouri: 6R-3D before election, 6R-2D after. Republicans net 0.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 126D-106R.
Montana: 1R before election, 1R after. No change. Cumulative House total at 126D-107R.
Nebraska: 3R before election, 3R after. No change. Cumulative House total at 126D-110R.
Nevada: 2R-1D before election, 2D-2R after. Democrats net 0.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 128D-112R.
NV-04: Steven Horsford, the Democratic Majority Leader of the State Senate, appears headed for a narrower victory than what was initially anticipated. Nevertheless, according to recent polling, Horsford should win this newly-created House seat based in northern Clark County and the southern Cow Counties over the Republican candidate, Danny Tarkanian.Lean Democrat.
New Hampshire: 2R before election, 2D after. Democrats net 2 seats. Cumulative House total at 130D-112R.
NH-01: One of two 2010 rematches that looks good for the Democrats. Former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter narrowly leads current Republican Rep. Frank Guinta. Tilt Democrat.
NH-02: In the state’s other race, it appears attorney Ann McLane Kuster is leading moderate Republican Rep. Charles Bass. Lean Democrat.
New Jersey: 7D-6R before election, 6D-6R after. Republicans net 0.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 136D-118R.
New Mexico: 2D-1R before election, 2D-1R after. No change. Cumulative House total at 138D-119R.
New York: 21D-8R before election, 22D-5R after. Democrats net 2 seats. Cumulative House total at 160D-124R.
NY-18: Republican Rep. Nan Hayworth and Democrat Sean Maloney are locked in an extremely tight race in this suburban New York district. Hayworth’s past opposition to disaster aid, especially in light of Hurricane Sandy, may end up coming to hurt her in the end. Tilt Democrat.
NY-24: Accidental Republican Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle is trailing her 2010 opponent, former Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei in this district anchored by Syracuse. Lean Democrat.
NY-27: Democratic Rep. Kathy Hochul’s come-from-behind victory in 2011 in this upstate-based district was a shock to many. As one of the most Republican districts in New York, Hochul has a chance to pull off a second victory, in what surely will be a barnburner. Tilt Democrat.
North Carolina: 7D-6R before election, 9R-4D after. Republicans net 3 seats. Cumulative House total at 164D-133R.
NC-08: Democratic Rep. Larry Kissell’s fluke congressional career appears to be almost over, as this already Republican leaning seat was shifted to the right in redistricting, dooming him to defeat at the hands of State Sen. Richard Hudson in this district made up of suburban Charlotte. Lean Republican.
NC-11: Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler decided to retire rather than face reelection in an incredibly tough district made up of much of western North Carolina. His chief of staff, Hayden Rogers, will over perform generic Democrats but will likely fail in this race against Republican Mark Meadows. Lean Republican.
NC-13: Redistricting completely changed this once Democratic district into one that leans towards the GOP. Democrat Charles Malone looks likely to fall to Republican U.S. Attorney George Holding in his bid to replace retiring Rep. Brad Miller. Likely Republican.
North Dakota: 1R before election, 1R after. No change. Cumulative House total at 164D-134R.
Ohio: 13R-5D before election, 10R-6D after. Democrats net 2 seats. Cumulative House total at 170D-144R.
OH-06: A rematch from 2010, former Democratic Rep. Charlie Wilson looks to take back his Ohio River Valley-based seat against Republican Rep. Bill Johnson. A tight race, Wilson hopes to return to seat to its historic roots. Tilt Democrat.
OH-16: Republican Rep. Jim Renacci and Democratic Rep. Betty Sutton are in a fierce and expensive war for this seat south of Cleveland. While this seat leans Republican, Sutton’s popularity in the Akron area have given her the smallest of leads. Tilt Democrat.
Oklahoma: 4R-1D before election, 5R after. Republicans net 1 seat. Cumulative House total at 170D-149R.
OK-02: Republican Markwayne Mullin appears likely to make history as the first Republican ever elected to this eastern Oklahoma district that was once the base of conservative and populist Democrats in the state. He leads his opponent, Democratic State Sen. Rob Wallace. Likely Republican.
Oregon: 4D-1R before election, 4D-1R after. No change. Cumulative House total at 174D-150R.
Pennsylvania: 12R-7D before election, 12R-6D after. Republicans net 0.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 180D-162R.
Rhode Island: 2D before election, 2D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 182D-162R.
South Carolina: 5R-1D before election, 6R-1D after. Republicans net 0.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 183D-167R.
South Dakota: 1R before election, 1R after. No change. Cumulative House total at 183D-168R.
Tennessee: 7R-2D before election, 6R-3D after. Democrats net 1 seat. Cumulative House total at 186D-174R.
TN-04: Rep. Scott DesJarlais appeared to be coasting to a second term a month ago, until news media reported that the conservative, pro-life Republican pressured a mistress and former patient into having an abortion. Later revelations of other improper sexual conduct with his medical patients has allowed for an opening for conservative Democratic State Sen. Eric Stewart. Tilt Democrat.
Texas: 23R-9D before election, 24R-12D after. Democrats net 1 seat. Cumulative House total at 198D-198R.
TX-23: Popular Democratic State Rep. Pete Gallego’s entrance into this race was seen as the Democrats’ only hope to unseat freshman Republican Rep. Quico Canseco. Both candidates appear locked in a near dead heat in this suburban and rural district located west of San Antonio. Tilt Democrat.
Utah: 2R-1D before election, 4R after. Republicans net 1.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 202R-198D.
UT-04: Mia Love, the Republican mayor of Saratoga Springs, appears to be headed to victory over popular Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in this redistricted House seat. Love would be the first black woman elected to Congress as a Republican. Lean Republican.
Vermont: 1D before election, 1D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 202R-199D.
Virginia: 8R-3D before election, 8R-3D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 210R-202D.
Washington: 5D-4R before election, 6D-4R after. Democrats net 0.5 seats. Cumulative House total at 214R-208D.
West Virginia: 2R-1D before election, 2R-1D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 216R-209D.
Wisconsin: 5R-3D before election, 5R-3D after. No change. Cumulative House total at 221R-212D.
Wyoming: 1R before election, 1R after. No change. Cumulative House total at 222R-212D.
THE GOVERNORS RACES
11 of the country’s 50 Governorships are up for election on Nov. 6. Democrats hold 8 of them, while Republicans hold the remaining 3.
First, the safe races. Democrats will almost surely hold four seats by wide margins (Delaware, Missouri, Vermont and West Virginia), while Republicans will do the same in 2 of their 3 seats (North Dakota and Utah).
And now for the competitive races:
Indiana: It seems the incendiary comments regarding rape made by Richard Mourdock, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, have hurt the rest of the GOP ticket in the state. A few weeks ago, Rep. Mike Pence, R-Greenwood, looked poise to win by a large margin against his opponent, former Speaker of the Indiana House John Gregg, D-Sandborn. Rep. Pence is still the heavy favorite, although it appears his win will no longer be as decisive. I rate this as Likely GOP.
Montana: The race to succeed popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer is in a dead heat between Schweitzer protégé and populist Attorney General Steve Bullock, D-Helena, and former Republican Rep. Rick Hill. Bullock appears to have the slightest of advantages thanks to his support of Montana’s long time campaign finance regulations and Schweitzer’s popularity. I rate this as Tilt Democrat.
New Hampshire: Former State Senate Majority leader Maggie Hassan, D-Exeter, is looking for a come from behind victory in her fight against Ovide Lamontagne, R-Manchester. The latest polling shows Hassan will pull it out in the end. I rate this as Lean Democrat.
North Carolina: Popular former Charlotte Mayor and Republican Pat McCrory looks likely to succeed where he failed in 2008. He leads Lt. Governor Walter Dalton, D-Rutherfordton, in the polls, largely due to his popularity as former mayor and the unpopularity of the Perdue administration. I rate this as Likely GOP.
Washington: Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Bainbridge Island, is leading polls slightly over his opponent, Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna, R-Bellevue. This race has tightened in recent days, but Inslee should win with the help of President Obama’s coattails in the state. I rate this as Lean Democrat.
SUMMARY
I predict President Obama will defeat Gov. Romney 303-235, Democrats will have a 54-46 majority in the United States Senate, Republicans will have a 222-212 majority in the United States House of Representatives and the only governorship that will change party hands is in North Carolina.