The last week of polling has overwhelmingly favored Obama. Central to Obama's gains in Silver's model is his consistent 1-4 point lead in Ohio across over a dozen recent polls.
But for all the attention Ohio gets in this election, I think Virginia deserves a little more face time too. Starting right at 7:00 tonight, Virginia is going to be the state that tells us what kind of a night we're in for. And what we're all hoping for is a clear and decisive lead/win early in Virginia. It could happen. Like in Ohio, recent polls consistently give Obama a small but solid lead in Virginia.
An early win in Virginia will obviously indicate that Obama gets reelected (as there is no plausible way for Romney to win without Virginia).
But perhaps equally important, an early win in Virginia will set the tone for the rest of the election coverage. The horse-race narrative that has so dominated most news coverage will immediately start to lose steam. And the debate will slowly shift towards tracking Obama's inevitable cross over the 270 line. This might also push the networks to call Ohio for Obama earlier than they might otherwise, simply because the outcome of the election will no longer rely solely on Ohio's electoral votes.
Which leads me to my last point. I don't just want a win, I want a decisive win. tonight by 11pm Eastern time: Romney concedes and Obama accepts. If Obama's margin of victory is greater than 18, an Ohio recount would be meaningless to the outcome. Virginia will give us that and it will save us from the gloomy prospect of an arduous recount.