The most recent poll from PPP has Mitt Romney up 7 points over Obama in Arizona. When you look at the internals, however, there is a huge problem with their sample.
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic........16%
White............74%
Other............10%
I'll explain more after the fold.
The sample is 16% Hispanic. This matches exactly with the 2008 exit polls.
The problem is, all signs point to an increase in Latino turnout this year over 2008. In fact, there was even an increase in Latino turnout in 2010, which was a terrible year for us. The William C. Velasquez Institute, which has Latino turnout statistics going all the way back to 1984, shows the 2010 turnouts at 18.76%, nearly 3 points higher than what PPP is suggesting for this year. It should be noted that they show the 2008 turnout at only 11.65%, which does not match 2008 exit polling.
Latino turnout is already breaking records in early voting.
From Latino Post:
"This year, at least 111,975 Latinos in AZ have already voted early," a statement from the group released Monday reads. "That is already a 28 percent increase in the number of Latinos who voted early this year compared to 4 years ago. This proves that Latinos are turning out to vote in unprecedented numbers across Arizona this year."
...
Earlier this month, as Arizona-based news site KTAR.com reported, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials estimated that 359,000 Latinos in Arizona will vote this year, up from about 291,000 in 2008.
The percentage of Latino voters in Arizona will likely exceed the 16% sample from PPP. Arguably, it is likely to exceed the 2010 turnouts of almost 19%. This may not lead to an Obama win here, but it could pull Dr. Richard Carmona up above Jeff Flake. The PPP poll has Carmona only 5 points behind Flake, with a Latino sample that could be more than 5% below actual turnout.