I did not do my due diligence with my previous diary and I apologize for that. The resource that I was using was not using the 2010 official Census numbers, but the 2010 estimates. This mistake (I had assumed they were the official numbers, and took the growth rates presented to me at face value) created some massive distortions in larger counties like Harris and Dallas (the "missing" 30,000 voters in each county referenced in my write-up, for instance), Tarrant, Denton, Collin, Travis, and Bexar. For instance, Dallas County has 2,368,139 individuals instead of 2,377,642. This works out to have a growth rate of something slightly larger than 15.75%: 16.21%. I had to work out those numbers for all the larger counties that I split and, because I have massive respect for the truth, for honesty, and for the people here - and because I knew I'd have fun doing it - I had to re-do this map using those actual growth numbers.
The differences between this map and the previous stem mostly from the different growth rates. I've made a few other change on the edges which I think would more accurately reflect the desires of a Republican majority in the Texas legislature: I've vote sinked the rest of Austin instead of cracking it and I've also oriented the two Sugarland/South Houston districts in a different way so as to more effectively vote sink them. I've also numbered the districts according to the current paradigm as that has been a consistent recommendation from the DKE crowd. I've made certain assumptions about the four "new" districts in 2010 and the three "new" districts in 2020. Some of the exiting districts, even one of the new ones from 2010, will effectively operate as "new" in 2020 because of the new distribution of population within the state and the requirements of the VRA. The 34th is a great example of that. Look below for more!
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District 16. This district, currently held by Silvestre Reyes (though he probably won't be around much longer if Beto O'Rourke has his way with it), contracts further into El Paso due to population growth. This is safely Democratic and will always be.
District 23. In the 2004-2010 map, this district entered San Antonio through Medina County and Eagle Pass. In the previous diary, I took this district into both Odessa and Midland because of Hispanic growth there. That isn't needed here because of the shifts due to my oversight in the previous diary. Instead, we just take in Odessa and venture much further into San Antonio's northwest side. By 2020 this district should be 55-45 Democratic (McCain won 51-49 instead of the 55-45 in the last map) and almost 65% Hispanic.
District 37. This is one of the three new districts that is created in the 2020 round of redistricting. In my previous diary I had this going into Seguin and then stopping just short of the coast. Here, however, I take it all the way down into Port Lavaca. This doesn't change the current numbers at all - it is still 49.6% Obama, but that is still likely to be 55-45 come 2020.
District 28. This McAllen and Mission based district stretch to the north through sparsely inhabited territory. The Hispanic percentage is currently at 88%, but isn't likely to go much higher than that. Democrats will routinely get 65-70% of the vote here.
District 15. This district is actually more Democratic than I had it in the previous version by about a full percentage point. Not that it matters. In 2020 it will be safe.
District 27. This district is about the same as the 15th. Safely Democratic in 2020.
District 19. This is perhaps the greatest travesty of the growing Hispanic population! One of the guiding rules of redistricting in Texas is that you do not, period, ever, nada, zip, zilch, combine Lubbock and Abilene in a single district. However, because of the addition of another fajita strip and the resultant shift north of the everything to its west, it is impossible for both of them to anchor their own district. It's got a large Hispanic minority, but not enough to sway an election result as the district will stay far above 60-40 Republican for awhile.
District 11. This is different than my previous version for three reasons: 1) Austin is vote sinked, which allows most of what my previous 23rd had to enter other districts; 2) The Hill Country is stuck in with Lamar Smith's district; and 3) Midland is free from a Hispanic VRA district's grasp. This also has a large Hispanic minority (35%+ in 2020) that is impotent electorally.
District 13. This Wichita Falls and Fort Worth exurban district is probably the safest Republican district in the state, actually, because it isn't having the same influx of Hispanics as elsewhere (only 15% now and probably still under 20% in 2020).
District 31. This district isn't liable to change very much here on out. We're always going to get a pairing of the furthest stretches of Williamson County (Georgetown, etc.) and the Centroplex.
District 17. Here's a positive change from the previous map! This district now resembles its current form. I wouldn't be surprised if Bill Flores is primaried out in this heavily Christianist and white district.
District 4. This district is also much closer now to its current form and is still safely Republican.
District 1. This is kindof a nice compromise between the current map and my previous diary. It still loses Tyler, but now maintains most of its current form.
District 20. This district shifts a bit back to the east from my previous diary to accomodate the 23rd (which, by the way, no longer takes in the south side. I'd call this both a VRA district (which it obviously is) and a CoI district. It takes in the more middle class Hispanic areas north and west of downtown which constitute something of a corridor along NW Loop 410.
District 35. I decided that mimicking the interim map proposal for this 2010 new district was the proper way to go, so I took Seguin and placed it here. This has the added benefit of making this a great CoI district in that all of the military bases and the poor Hispanic communities which depend on them are placed here. Both this district and the above are safe in 2020.
District 21. Lamar Smith's district still takes in San Antonio's rich white northern suburbs (but loses Alamo Heights and his home... pity), Austin's resort areas and, a bonus, now takes in all of the Hill County. This is actually amazing from a CoI perspective. The only thing county that doesn't fit in is poverty stricken Blanco.
District 10. McCaul's district now meanders into Northwest Travis County through Round Rock (in Williamson) instead of Pflugerville. This gives him a hell of alot of extra time as the district is still 60-40 McCain and will likely be around that even in 2020. I was able to do this because I vote sinked...
District 25. Lloyd Doggett gets a white (65% and likely to be at a similar level in 2020 because Hispanics are priced out of Austin's west side and inner core) liberal district at 65% Obama. They aren't likely to split this district into many pieces next time even with the addition of a neighboring Hispanic majority district because it, as I showed last time, puts all of those districts at risk. They couldn't possibly be that stupid.
District 34. In the 2010 round of redistricting this is a district placed along the coast and anchored in Houston's exurbs (that really doesn't change no matter where the lawsuits end up). The level of growth in Houston's exurbs means that a whole new district has to be placed in Houston. The new fajita strip requires that the previous incarnation of this district be divided up and appendaged to Valley based district. The level of Hispanic growth then requires a new district to be created there. The result? A contraction of this district into Austin's east side as basically an entirely new district.
None of these districts change very much from my last version. The 39th becomes slightly more black while the 30th becomes slightly more Hispanic. I also tried to hew more towards the existing boundaries with the 32nd, 24th, and 3rd. The 32nd, at 53-47 McCain, is likely actually to not be a tossup in 2020 despite being only white plurality because the SSVR (Spanish Surname Voter Registration) is only 9% and the normal partisan breakdown is 60-40 Republican.
From my previous diary Houston has not changed very much. The one notable change is that the 9th and 22nd are oriented differently and the 14th and 2nd's boundary in Harris County changes so that the 2nd is dramatically more Republican. The 38th is a new district, and, if you noticed, that means that all three new districts were drawn as VRA districts and two of the previously existing Republican districts (the 34th and the 22nd) have been reconfigured as VRA districts. That's an absolute -2 for the Republican delegation from Texas and a -5 relative overall for Republicans in the state from 2010 to 2020.
That makes for a map which has 17 Democratic districts, 21 Republican districts, and 1 tossup (the 23rd) which leans towards the Democrats. The breakdown in 2010 is likely to be either 11 or 12 (it depends on what happens to the Doggett district) for the Democrats, either 23 or 24 districts for the Republicans, and 1 tossup (the 23rd). I'll leave you with the reiteration that this is an absolute loss for Republicans (by either 2 or 3 seats) as well as a relative loss for them (by either 5 or 6 seats). The next decade is not going to be pretty for the Republican Party in the great state of Texas... especially once Hispanics outnumber Anglos (something expected around 2015).
The Rastafarian colors were inadvertent, but interesting.
For some reason this reminds me of two somewhat related things:
1) a mother, in blue, holding her purple baby to her breast with her green arm
2) a purple baby in a red ultrasound.